Why is Russia loosing?

These remarks were triggered by this article: news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war...
There is a famous aphorism that says, that every army prepares to fight the last war again.

Sounds like a trivial soundbite, but it isn’t and it is deeply connected to what is happening in the Ukraine.

There is a certain logic to that aphorism as the last war is the best benchmark available.

But even if the participants remain the same, the results can be very asymmetrical. Like now …

Russia prepared to fight the Ukraine from 2014. To the disadvantage of the Russian, that is not the enemy they’re facing. The leaders of Ukraine are so (comparatively) young as the old ones were sent into the desert after the disaster in 2014. Russia is therefore facing a completely different enemy.

The Ukraine prepared to fight the Russians from 2014. The current enemy is a as close match as a twin. Russia has not changed and why should it have? It won and the system is discouraging change.

So Ukraine prepared for the correct enemy and the Russians did not. The result is pretty visible.

This is not the first time this happened. A similar thing happened with the Fall of France in 1940. France was perfectly prepared to fight an enemy they themselves encouraged to evolve militarily.

Russia can‘t change fast. The best way would be to replace the old leaders and get new ones as the Ukrainians did. But in Russia 2022 this would completely upheaval the political system. So they do not change (yet).

Only a big defeat or the death of Putin can create the impulse required for the change. That is why the secret service chief speaks about a coming coup. It will come. With the current leadership the defeats will grow and grow in size until the solution is saturated.