https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/12/new-iop-poll-finds-younger-voters-unenthusiastic-on-biden-trump-rematch/

New IOP poll finds younger #voters unenthusiastic on Biden-Trump rematch

..."Gen Z and late Millennial voters turned out in record numbers in the 2020 election, providing a critical boost to Joe Biden’s victory over then-President Donald Trump. But a new poll released Dec. 5 from the Institute of Politics at the Harvard Kennedy School finds waning enthusiasm among younger voters for a Biden-Trump rematch, with more of them saying they may vote for a third-party candidate or just sit out the 2024 election, a troubling sign for the Democrats.

The number of younger Americans aged 18-29 who say they’ll “definitely” vote in the 2024 election has dropped from 57 percent to 49 percent since fall 2019, when the 2020 presidential election was still one year away, according to the poll. The falloff is most acute among Republicans and Independents/unaffiliated, whose eagerness to vote has dropped 10 points, from 66 percent to 56 percent, and from 41 percent to 31 percent, respectively. Likely voters among young Democrats dipped by 2 points.

“It’s clear from this poll that young people aren’t thrilled about facing the same choice in 2024 as they did in 2020,” said Ethan Jasny ’25, student chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project, which publishes the Harvard Youth Poll twice yearly. The largest and oldest of its kind, the poll surveyed 2,098 Americans across the country between the ages of 18-29 from different educational, socioeconomic, and geographical backgrounds over two weeks in late October and early November.

The decline in interest was pervasive, surfacing across several demographic categories. Half of young Black and 56 percent of Hispanic/Latin Americans said in fall 2019 that they planned to vote; now only 38 percent of Black and 40 percent of Hispanic/Latin young people say the same.

Though college graduates remain eager to vote, college students and those who either didn’t graduate from college or are not in college appear less motivated to vote than students were four years ago. The percent of college students who plan to vote fell from 68 percent to 55 percent; from 48 percent to 40 percent among non-college grads, and from 56 percent to 46 percent for those not attending college."...