Adult literacy skills mostly declined or stagnated in the past decade, according to an OECD survey. 31 countries (mostly OECD members) participated in the 2023 Survey of Adult Skills.
"As 27 of them also participated in previous rounds, the data provide insights into how proficiency in literacy and numeracy has evolved over the past decade."
Some quotes from the report:
"Over the past decade, average literacy proficiency has remained stable or declined in most participating countries and economies, with only Finland (15 points) and Denmark (9 points) exhibiting significant improvements. The largest falls (over 20 points) were in Korea, Lithuania, New Zealand and Poland."
"Changes in numeracy proficiency have been more favourable. Eight countries have seen average numeracy scores improve, with the largest gains recorded in Finland and Singapore (both 17 points). Average scores remained stable in 12 countries and declined in 7, most significantly in Lithuania and Poland."
"Finland, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden are the best-performing countries in all three domains. In 2023, adults in Finland display the highest level of proficiency in both literacy (296 points, against an average of 260 points across OECD countries) and numeracy (294 points, against an OECD average of 263). In adaptive problem solving, Finland and Japan have the highest average scores (276 points in both countries, against an OECD average of 251). Eleven countries (Chile, Croatia, France, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Korea, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal and Spain) consistently perform below the OECD average in all skills domains."
"On average, across participating OECD countries, nearly one-fifth of adults are considered low performers, scoring at or below Level 1 in all three domains. This share ranges from 7% in Japan to 44% in Chile. Some 14 countries recorded an increase in the share of low-performing adults in literacy, and no country saw a reduction. The share of low performers in numeracy increased in 9 countries and decreased only in Canada, Finland and Singapore."
"Declines in average proficiency are largely due to falls among the lowest-performing adults. In most countries and economies, the literacy proficiency of the lowest-performing 10% of the population has declined, with many experiencing similar declines in numeracy. The evolution of proficiency of the top-performing 10% of the population has evolved more favourably, leading to widening skills inequalities within countries. In 2023, Singapore and the United States displayed the largest skills inequalities in literacy and numeracy."
They comment on immigrants vs native born, the expansion of education, young adults (16-24), women vs men, and socioeconomic background.
"In literacy, foreign-born adults scored 44 points below native-born adults, on average. About half of this difference can be explained by factors such as immigrants having lower level of educational attainment and lacking proficiency in the language of the assessment. The largest gap between native- and foreign-borns was recorded in Finland (105 points), where foreign-born adults make up only 10 percent of the adult population. Gaps are also large in countries with a larger immigrant population, like Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands (around 70 points). Gaps are much smaller in Ireland (10 points), Chile (19 points) and New Zealand (20 points).
"Over the past decade, literacy proficiency among foreign-born adults has improved only in Denmark, Finland and Sweden, and has declined in 11 countries. As native-born adults have recorded more positive trends, the proficiency gap between foreign-born and native-born adults has widened in eight countries, with the largest increase recorded in Germany (28 points)."
"In a few countries, immigration explains a small part of the changes in proficiency of the overall population. In Austria, Germany, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden, average proficiency would have been around 5 points higher if the number of immigrants and their relative proficiency with respect to natives, had not changed over the past decade. This effect is however too small to fully account for the decline in literacy observed in Austria and New Zealand."
"Despite widespread educational expansion, average skill levels have not increased accordingly. Over the past decade, average literacy skills of tertiary-educated adults have increased only in Finland and have decreased in many countries. Large declines (of more than 20 points) were recorded among tertiary-educated adults in Korea, Lithuania and the Slovak Republic. Declines in proficiency have been even larger and more widespread among low-educated adults, often leading to widening gaps by level of education."
"The literacy proficiency of young adults aged 16-24 has increased only in Norway, Finland and England (United Kingdom) over the past decade, and has declined in eight countries, with large falls (above 20 points) in New Zealand, Lithuania, Poland and the Slovak Republic."
"As literacy proficiency has declined more strongly among men than women, gender gaps have narrowed in many countries and women now display higher literacy skills than men, on average. On the other hand, men continue to outperform women in numeracy (by 10 points), as well as in adaptive problem solving (by only 2 points)."
"Family and socio-economic background strongly affect skills proficiency, hindering social and economic mobility. The average difference in skills proficiency between adults with low- and highly educated parents amounted to 50 points in literacy, 49 points in numeracy and 42 points in adaptive problem solving. These differences are particularly pronounced in Germany. Since the previous assessment, the literacy skills gap between adults with low- and highly educated parents has widened in half of the countries."
If you're wondering what the report says is the explanation why this trend is happening, despite all the words devoted to the importance of cognitive skills and matching cognitive skills to jobs, the report doesn't really offer any explanation. At least I didn't see one. Furthermore, it says over the last decade, interpersonal skills have become more important in the labor market, but demand for cognitive skills has stayed the same. They say this in a brief section about AI. They don't come right out and make a bold prediction, but the implication, it seems to me, is that, as AI takes on more and more cognitive labor, interpersonal skills will become more and more important, while cognitive skills will become less important or at least no more important.
Adult skills in literacy and numeracy declining or stagnating in most OECD countries
