COVID-19: A month on, April 5, 2020, and my early-March confirmed-case projections are now ... slightly ... pessimistic.
Global confirmed cases lag projection by about 4 days -- the initial forecast remains quite close.
US confirmed cases lag by about 1 week, which is about one doubling period now (~6 days), vs 2.18 days initially. You can look at current case projections and treat them as next week's reality, for the next few days. These values should continue to diverge.
Deaths are mixed relative to projections. Globally, at 1.2 million cases, there are ~64,700 deaths. By case equivalent, I'd projected only 25k deaths, far fewer, and by date, for April 2, 43k deaths vs. 53k actual, stil 10,000 low. For a naive exponential model that's far closer than I'd have expected.
At ~300k I'd suggested 22k dead, actual is 8,452 for the US, better than projected, though official projections are now for an eventual 100-250k fatalities, quite possibly 1-2 million in worse scenarios.
That's some progress, but relatively slight. A far slower deviation from trend than China showed from my first projections, within 2-3 weeks.
A reminder: at the time I'd posted those projections, the US reported only 288 cases, rest-of-world ex-China, 12,668. The figures now stand at 311 thousand confirmed cases U.S., 1.2 million worldwide, with China's 81,669 cases now a rounding error.
As before, the correct US projection is the one in comments on the linked post, not the post itself, due to formula errors.
https://joindiaspora.com/posts/73d4e930421d0138028e002590d8e506
