Question: "When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a MENSA admission test?"
Sept. 2020: 2042 (22 years away)
Sept. 2021: 2031 (10 years away)
Sept. 2022: 2028 (6 years away)
Sept. 2023: 2026 (3 years away)
Resolved September 12, 2024
This are median prediction times from Metaculus, is an online forecasting platform, based on 275 predictions.
AI did it by a law test.
MENSA considers a 95% score on the Law School Admission Test (LSAT) to correspond to a 98% score on a general IQ test.
OpenAI released o1, which scores 95.6% on the LSAT "raw score", which is above the threshold.
I'd be interested to see when an AI system could pass the 98% threshold on one of MENSA's regular IQ tests, though.
When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?
