The National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System -- National Trends

The following surveillance information only applies to the four common human coronavirus types, not SARS-CoV2 or COVID-19. These four common types include 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1.

The four coronaviruses shown, and percent-positivity in testing, suggest that early-November levels are about 1/5 to 1/6 of winter peaks. How closely this models SARS-CoV2 behaviour is unknown, though suggestions are interesting.

COVID19 infections are running about 150,000/day in the US. Five times that is 750,000/day. Six times is 900,000/day.

Europe is seeing slightly over 200,000 cases/day. Five times that is 1,000,000 cases/day. Six times is 1,200,000/day.

https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/nrevss/coronavirus/natl-trends.html

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