Discussion elsewhere: Does COVID-19 first affect vulnerable populations such as the elderly or those with comorbidities?

This question popped up in another thread. It's an interesting suggestion, but my very strong sense is that it's a false impression.

My read is that an infectious agent has no specific capability to seek out vulnerable populations, but rather infects opportunistically. What it will do is spread through hospitable environments, whether the hosts themselves are vulnerable or not: asymptomatic carriers, super-spreaders, tight quarters, high-probability of transmission, etc.

For a previously non-vigelant region, that spread, especially if via no- or low-symptom carriers, won't be evident until the severely sick, or dead, start showing up.

Perception is "this targets highly-vulnerable populations".

Reality is that highly-vulnerable populations are your perception system.

The epidemic is widespread, but (perceptually) cryptic. It isn't until vulnerable populations are affected, and consequences have time to develop, that it becomes manifest. Which is precisely the circumstances of the Washington State outbreak: six weeks of cryptic spread, likely hitting an. elder-care home about two weeks before its residents began waking up dead.

Not only is the map not the territory, but the vista is not the geography.

#covid19 #epidemiology #MapTerritoryConfusion #media #Perception #PerceptionVsReality #SeeingLikeAState