"Rapid AI progress surprises even experts: Survey just out"

Sabine Hossenfelder reviews a survey of 2,778 AI researchers. They say 50% chance of "high level machine intelligence" ("comparable to human intelligence") by 2047, but that's down 13 years from the same survey a year ago, which said 2060.

For "full automation of labor", 50% probability by 2120 or so, but that's down almost 50 years from last years' prediction. (So last years' prediction must've been 2170 or so).

I can't help but think, does anybody seriously think it will take that long? I get that the "AGI in 7 months" predictions are a bit hard to take seriously, but still? Do these people not understand exponential curves?

Ray Kurzweil, and before him, Al Bartlett, are famous for saying people extrapolate the current rate of change linearly out into the future, so always underestimate exponential curves. Not implying Kurzweil or Bartlett are right about everything but this does look to me like what is happening, and you would think professional AI researchers, of all people, would know better.

Rapid AI progress surprises even experts: Survey just out - Sabine Hossenfelder

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