1% of the US population will likely be infected with COVID-19 as of today, or within days
If there's a 14 day lag on COVID-19 testing, and a ~2.14 day doubling rate, as data suggest, the US may cross about 3 million actual infecteds today, meaning about 1% of the overall population now has the virus, based on my March 6 projection. Projected confirmed cases have tracked quite closely to actual reports.
If during your day you encounter 100 people, or something that's encountered 100 people, odds are good that at least one was infected with the virus.
It's a very good time to minimise your contacts.
Keep in mind that our measure of ignorance is large, testing is grossly inadequate and inconsistent, that the relation of confirmed to actual cases is uncertain. Is it 1:10, 1:20? 1:85/ 1:100? There are arguments for each. I'm asuming about 1:85 for the US based on reporting lag and doubling rates.
But that 1% threshold will be crossed soon, all but certainly in the next week or two. At which point public contact all but certainly means infection risk.
