#ZeroCovid – für einen solidarischen europäischen Shutdown – Petition
#ZeroCovid #Covid19 #SARSCoV2 #FlattenTheCurve #Lockdown #Solidarität
#flattenthecurve
US overtakes Italy & China to lead world in COVID-19 cases at 82,179
This occurred a few minutes ago according to Worldometers Coronavirus tracking, on Thursday, March 26, 2020, one day later than I'd forecast 5 days ago. And my three week old exponential projection of US confirmed cases remains largely accurate. New confirmed cases in the US are occurring at twice the daily rate of the next highest country, Spain -- nearly 14,000 at this moment, vs. 6,800.
In other news, global confirmed cases crossed the half-million mark and should surpass 1 million within the week.
US weekly growth remains about 10x. The country will cross the 100,000 confirmed-case mark within the next two days, and 1 million in another week, probably around April 4.
Given that testing seems to lag actual cases by about a factor of 80, based on multiple inference paths, and exponential growth should slow as both nearly half the population is already infected (new hosts are harder to find, possibly with natural resistance), and, I hope, public health containment efforts should start bending the curve downwards, the March 6 projection should be highly pessimistic (erring in overstating cases) beyond early April. Testing lag may continue to catch up with it for some time though. Uncharted waters for a nonexpert Space Alien Cat.
Wash your hands. Stay the fuck home. Flatten the curve.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
#covid19 #coronavirus #publicHealth #StayTheFuckHome #FlattenTheCurve #epidemics
1% of the US population will likely be infected with COVID-19 as of today, or within days
If there's a 14 day lag on COVID-19 testing, and a ~2.14 day doubling rate, as data suggest, the US may cross about 3 million actual infecteds today, meaning about 1% of the overall population now has the virus, based on my March 6 projection. Projected confirmed cases have tracked quite closely to actual reports.
If during your day you encounter 100 people, or something that's encountered 100 people, odds are good that at least one was infected with the virus.
It's a very good time to minimise your contacts.
Keep in mind that our measure of ignorance is large, testing is grossly inadequate and inconsistent, that the relation of confirmed to actual cases is uncertain. Is it 1:10, 1:20? 1:85/ 1:100? There are arguments for each. I'm asuming about 1:85 for the US based on reporting lag and doubling rates.
But that 1% threshold will be crossed soon, all but certainly in the next week or two. At which point public contact all but certainly means infection risk.
Beim Versuch im Supermarkt Abstand zu halten, bin ich kläglich gescheitert. Ich kann ja nicht durch's Regal flüchten.
Am hartnäckigsten ist mir ausgerechnet eine Mitarbeiterin dort auf die Pelle gerückt, die ich auf eine Problem aufmerksam gemacht habe.
Der Klopapierhamster hat sich dann an der Ampel direkt neben einen anderen Menschen gestellt.
Zwei plaudernde Seniorinnen haben auf dem Fußweg einen guten Abstand gehalten und ich hab sie auch deswegen ausdrücklich gelobt. Sie erzählten beide sofort genervt, wie schwierig das sei, so mit den anderen Leuten.