An interesting thesis.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/26/2177730/-This-Russian-Ruse-is-Clear-as-Day
Short story: The author makes a case that Prigozhin's "coup" was a ruse/pretext designed to give Russia an excuse to use tactical nukes.
FTA: According to a Russian military doctrine stated in 2010, nuclear weapons could be used by Russia "in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies, and also in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened". Most military analysts believe that, in this case, Russia would pursue an 'escalate to de-escalate' strategy, initiating limited nuclear exchange to bring adversaries to the negotiating table. Russia will also threaten nuclear conflict to discourage initial escalation of any major conventional conflict. [emphasis in original]
... One of [Putin's] biggest concerns right now is that the West doesn’t take his threats seriously anymore. Russia’s escalate to de-escalate strategy has been completely defanged because no one believes they will actually follow through on anything.
But what if Putin was to find a veritable madman with a criminal background, who is known for being ruthless and brazen, and who has shown some mettle on the battlefield?
... Russia needs a madman on their side who will scare the hell out of the West and make them take Russia’s nuclear threat more seriously. Yevgeny Prigozhin is the perfect stand-in for that.
What happened over the weekend was coordinated by the entire Russian Security apparatus, including the FSB. Putin and Prigozhin played their leading roles perfectly, with Lukashenko coming in at the right moment with his supporting all.
... _Watch carefully what happens in Belarus from here on out.
There is a reason why Putin transferred tactical nuclear weapons there; there is a reason for this Prigozhin-led stunt failed coup; there is a reason Lukashenko was the one to broker that “agreement” at the right moment and then offer Prigo that convenient opportunity to “exile” in Belarus.
Russia wants the West to take its nuclear threats seriously again. It wants to be able to effectively use its military doctrine of escalate to de-escalate. What better way to do that than to stealthily install an unhinged madman in a client state that you just armed with nuclear weapons? This allows Russia to keep its fingers on the nuclear trigger while employing plausible deniability. [emphasis mine]
#WagnerGroup #Russia #Coup #Putin #Prigozhin
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/26/2177730/-This-Russian-Ruse-is-Clear-as-Day
