FutureSearch.AI lets you ask a language model questions about the future.
"What will happen to TikTok after Congress passed a bill on April 24, 2024 requiring it to delist or divest its US operations?"
"Will the US Department of Justice impose behavioral remedies on Apple for violation of antitrust law?"
"Will the US Supreme Court grant Trump immunity from prosecution in the 2024 Supreme Court Case: Trump v. United States?"
"Will the lawsuit brought against OpenAI by the New York Times result in OpenAI being allowed to continue using NYT data?"
"Will the US Supreme Court uphold emergency abortion care protections in the 2024 Supreme Court Case: Moyle v. United States?"
How does it work?
They say rather than asking a large language model a question in a 1-shot manner, they guide it through 6 steps for reasoning through hard questions. The 6 steps are:
"What is a basic summary of this situation?"
"Who are the important people involved, and what are their dispositions?"
"What are the key facets of the situation that will influence the outcome?"
"For each key facet, what's a simple model of the distribution of outcomes from past instances that share that facet?"
"How do I weigh the conflicting results of the models?"
"What's unique about this situation to adjust for in my final answer?"
See below for a discussion of two other approaches that claim similar prediction quality.
