Peace & Conflict Studies specialist Fernando Montiel's
ELEMENTS FOR A PEACE PLAN FOR UKRAINE
FIRST
The OSCE takes the lead on the crisis replacing NATO.
Immediate ceasefire of all parties, not necessarily with a retreat of troops: Russia won´t accept that (it will come later)
Stop the influx of Russian troops into Ukraine and stop the influx of weapons by NATO
A negotiation table is established, chaired by OSCE and located in Andorra -or in any place with no such high stakes in the matter
Entering a Chapter 6 Peace Mission; although a Chapter 7 could be called for, it would be vetoed by Russia. So, Chapter 6: has bigger immediate chances of success
SECOND
If the previous actions work, a Permanent Observation Mission enters in place of the Peace Mission.
For the Russian populated areas of Crimea and Donbass a special minority status is sought, taking what worked of the Dayton Agreements for Bosnia & Herzegovina and for Kosovo-Vojvodina in Serbia after 1999.
A de-militarization mechanism is engineered for the Crimean Peninsula in particular, but extendable to the immediate European Russian vicinity, building on strong short-range defensive military hardware but no long-range NATO equipment for all post 1989-1991 NATO republics.
Retreat of Russian troops from Ukrainian soil
THIRD
Sanctions against Russia are lift up.
A regional de-nuclearization for Eastern Europe agreement is negotiated on the lines of the Tlatelolco Treaty.
A regional cooperation mechanism for Eastern Europe is established; more like a mini-EU, less like CIS.
https://twitter.com/FMontielT/status/1499102653443297280
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