Multiple Iranian political factions, including hardliners, are coalescing around the assessment that the regime has lost touch with its people. Former moderate President Hassan Rouhani continued to frame the deepening divides between Iranian leadership and its population as an urgent threat and suggested that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has failed to sufficiently address such divides on February 7. Rouhani described Khamenei’s efforts to grant amnesty to and commute the sentences of “tens of thousands” of prisoners and arrested protesters as “a starting point.” Rouhani called on the regime to pursue policies aimed at addressing protester grievances, including reviving the Joint Comprehensive Joint of Action and easing ongoing internet restrictions. Rouhani also stated that actions that damage “human dignity. . . go against national security and public interests,” inverting the regime’s narrative that anti-regime dissidents and critics threaten Iranian internal security. Rouhani previously criticized the regime for marginalizing moderate and reformist actors in the Iranian political sphere in an interview on February 1, as CTP previously reported.

It is noteworthy that Rouhani did not comment on Mir Hossein Mousavi’s calls for “foundational” change in Iran. Mousavi, who partly led the 2009 Green Movement, adopted a largely revolutionary tone in his February 4 statement and discussed the need for a referendum on whether to maintain the Islamic Republic. Rouhani had the opportunity to but did not reject or distance himself from Mousavi’s statement. CTP has not presently observed other prominent moderate and reformist politicians dismiss Mousavi’s calls for significant structural changes to the regime, which could signal implicit support for Mousavi’s proposals. Mousavi’s comments may alternatively embolden some moderates and reformists to continue to promote targeted reforms.

Some hardline figures, including officials close to Khamenei, have also acknowledged the deep societal divides in recent days.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-7-2023

#ISW #CTP #Iran