Yesterday we had this media wave:
* Russian planes ‘destroyed’ in major attack on Morozovsk airfield - Telegraph
* [https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-drones-destroy-six-russian-warplanes-in-one-of-its-biggest-attacks-of-war/ar-BB1l7lcB](Ukraine drones destroy six Russian warplanes in one of its biggest attacks of war) - The i
* Ukraine claims it destroyed Russian warplanes in one of its biggest drone attacks of the war - AP
* Russia-Ukraine war live: 20 members of Russian airfield personnel killed or injured in drone attack, Kyiv says - Guardian
* Ukraine war latest: Ukraine strikes airfields in Russia, destroying or damaging 19 warplanes, sources say - Kyiv Independent
* OVERNIGHT ONSLAUGHT Ukraine launches massive drone attack destroying six planes & killing 20 Russian troops as ’60 explosions’ rock airbase - The Sun

The #Russia claim of no significant damage has been confirmed by the anti-Russian Institute for the Study of War:

#ISW has yet to find any visual evidence that Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed aircraft or infrastructure at any of the four Russian airbases targeted by drones on the night of 4-5 April.

Such news cycles of fake claims of alleged Ukrainian successes are a major reason why some in the western public still believe that the #Ukraine can win the war.

Source

Russian planes ‘destroyed’ in major attack on Morozovsk airfield

Ukraine has tried to dent Moscow’s power to strike over the border, by targeting military facilities used to launch long-range missions

Denying Russia’s Only Strategy for Success

#ISW #Russia

Institute for the Study of War

#MoD & #ISW #Analysis

Wait a second, so the completely dead, battered, beaten and defeated, poor Russian army, who—according to MSM—had had 95% casualties thus far, is suddenly able to muster 3 entire full-fledged field armies just for the task of securing the Polish border? That is a veritable universe of difference with what’s allowed for public consumption.

The Russians have expanded their army’s structure to fight the war and have indicated their intention of retaining the larger structure after the war.[5] They could readily station three full armies (the 18th Combined Arms Army and the 25th Combined Arms Army newly created for this war and the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army) on the borders of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania.[6]

In fact, it’s absolutely dizzying what ISW now claim Russia will be able to muster along the entire NATO front:

Where are all these hundreds of divisions suddenly coming from? Ah, but you see, that’s the power of propaganda. It only goes to show that virtually everything we see is just grist meant for the public consumption mill, intentionally designed and targeted propaganda meant to downplay Russian forces in every way conceivable—from their quantity to quality, to everything in between.

But the real planners, the gray eminences behind the curtain, see what they conceal from us—massive, unprecedented Cold War-era Russian buildups that are not being attritioned in any appreciable way in Ukraine.

source
#US #EU #NATO #UKRAINE #RUSSIA

What inspired us to begin reporting. We were getting our news from ISW, until we did our research.
#Victoria's #ISW #Secret
·

I’m the sort of person who can’t stand getting ‘expert analysis’ from the same people who lied to me the last time. When I see a war article on the BBC, Fox, CNN, or MSNBC, I know I need to do my own research. When I see that all the MSM agrees on something, I know it’s either true, or it’s some next level narrative.
Read full story

Geolocated footage published on October 13 indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced north of a waste heap two kilometers northwest of Avdiivka.[42] Several Russian milbloggers, including a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger, claimed that Russian forces abandoned previously occupied positions on the waste heap for an unspecified reason on October 13.

#ISW #Russia #Ukraine

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-14-2023

Institute for the Study of War

Stop this war
An analysis of the counteroffensive and the narratives pertaining to it.
more
#Ukraine #Russia #ISW #Illusions

Ukrainian forces may be able to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough in the southern frontline if several key assumptions hold. A significant Ukrainian success will be more likely if:

1) Russian forces do not have the necessary reserves or combat power to maintain Russian defenses in western Zaporizhia Oblast;

2) Ukrainian forces retain enough combat power to continue pushing after exhausting Russian combat power; and

3) Russian defensive positions behind the current battle area are not as heavily mined or well prepared as the fortifications that Ukrainian forces have breached.

1) seems to be the case
2) who knows but them?
3) the big question

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2023

#ISW #Ukraine #Russia

Institute for the Study of War

What a nonchalant way of getting rid of one's hooligans:

The Russian “Hispaniola” Volunteer Reconnaissance Assault Brigade – a volunteer formation composed of Russian radical soccer fans and operating in the Bakhmut direction – reported that Ukrainian forces struck the brigade’s headquarters near Svitlodarsk (20km southeast of Bakhmut City). The “Hispaniola” Brigade added that the strike resulted in the destruction of the headquarters, the loss of several vehicles, and casualties. The “Hispaniola” Brigade claimed that it continues to fight in the Bakhmut direction, is deploying additional personnel, and is recruiting more volunteers.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-20-2023

#ISW #Russia

Institute for the Study of War

Leave no-one behind.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and founder Dmitry Utkin reportedly died after Russian forces shot down an aircraft transporting senior Wagner commanders over Tver Oblast. The Russian Federal Aviation Agency (Rosaviatsiya) reported on August 23 that all the passengers – Yevgeny Prigozhin, Dmitry Utkin, Sergei Propustin, Yevgeny Makaryan, Alexander Totmin, Valery Chekalov, Nikolai Matyuseev – died in the crash along with all three crew members.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-23-2023

#ISW #Russia #AlPutino

Institute for the Study of War

Gennady Lopyrev, a former lieutenant general in the Russian Federal Protection Service (FSO), who was serving a sentence for bribery in a penal colony in Ryazan Oblast, Russia, died on August 16. The chairman of the Public Monitoring Commission of Ryazan Oblast, Viktor Boborykin, did not provide the cause of Lopyrev’s death, but a Russian insider source claimed that Lopyrev was “unexpectedly” diagnosed with leukemia on August 14 after suddenly complaining of shortness of breath despite normal health indicators. The insider source claimed Lopyrev was “the keeper of secrets” related to the construction of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Black Sea residence in Gelendzhik, often referred to as “Putin’s Palace.”

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2023

#ISW #Russia #leukemia

Institute for the Study of War

I'm wondering, #ISW, for which nation the blot in the top left corner stands. Great Anchorage perhaps?

#Iran #Russia

Another one bites the dust:

The head of one of the largest suppliers of surveillance equipment to Russian special services died on July 22. Russian law enforcement found “IKS Holding” Head Anton Cherepennikov dead in his office on July 22 and later claimed that Cherepennikov suffocated during a xenon gas therapy session.

#ISW #Russia

#ISW
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 19, 2023
Jul 19, 2023 - Press ISW

Russian forces launched an extensive missile and drone attack against port and grain infrastructure in southern Ukraine on July 19 likely to further emphasize Russia’s objections to the renewal of the Black Sea grain deal and hinder Ukraine’s ability to export grain. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted strikes using 16 Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles, eight Kh-22 anti-ship missiles, six Onyx cruise missiles, one Kh-59 guided air missile, and 32 Iranian-made Shahed drones. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces predominantly targeted civilian and military infrastructure in Odesa Oblast with Kh-22 and Onyx missiles and that Ukrainian forces shot down 37 air targets including 13 Kalibrs, one Kh-59 missile, and 23 Shaheds.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 2023
Jul 18, 2023 - Press ISW

The July 17 Kerch Strait Bridge attack is likely having immediate ramifications on Russian military logistics in southern Ukraine.

#Weeb-Union
Black Sea Port BLOCKADED

ISW has calculated based on its own control of terrain data that Ukrainian forces recaptured approximately 253 square kilometers of territory.
[...]
Russian forces have captured a total of 282 square kilometers in the entire theater since January 1. In five weeks, Ukrainian forces have liberated nearly the same amount of territory that Russian forces captured in over six months.

That's about 1.6, resp. 1.8 times the area of Liechtenstein.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-10-2023

#ISW #CTP #Ukraine

Institute for the Study of War

ISW: Russia threatens Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant sabotage

Russia may be signaling a willingness to sabotage the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to dissuade Ukrainian forces from conducting a counteroffensive in the area, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote.

The experts point out that a radioactive leak would be difficult to control and could potentially impact Russian forces more than the Ukrainian ones, depending on given conditions at the time.

They also note that a radiological terror attack would render many areas in occupied southern Ukraine "uninhabitable and ungovernable," degrading Russia's hold over them.

The ISW reminded that Moscow has repeatedly used nuclear threats related to the Zaporizhzhia plant to constrain Ukraine's military actions and prevent further Western assistance to Kyiv

https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russia-likely-threatens-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-sabotage-to-dissuade-local-counteroffensive/

#RussiaInvadedUkraine #nuclear #ZNPP #ZaporizhzhiaNuclearPowerPlant #RussianWarCrimes #terrorism #ISW #radioactivity #radioactive #Zaporizhzhia #sabotage

Victoria's #ISW Secret

Victoria's ISW Secret

The MSM gets its war analysis from the sister in law of the woman who made the war inevitable.

While the #ISW reports

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 10 Iskander ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv City from Bryansk Oblast, which borders Ukraine, in the morning on June 1, and that Ukrainian air defense destroyed all 10 missiles.

The other #not-to-be-trusted report that
Kyiv’s Air Defense Going Crazy, Fails To Intercept Russian Strikes

Kyiv's Air Defense Going Crazy, Fails To Intercept Russian Strikes

On the night of June 2, Russian forces launched another wave of strikes on military facilities throughout Ukraine. One of...

Sometimes I read the #ISW reports, and I have the impression that they often give clear indications that Ukraine will win and that Russian forces will soon run out of modern weapons, but the clear indications seem to be getting fewer.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1, 2023
Jun 1, 2023 - Press ISW

Russian forces conducted another series of missile strikes on Ukraine overnight on May 31 to June 1 and during the day on June 1. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 10 Iskander ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv City from Bryansk Oblast, which borders Ukraine, in the morning on June 1, and that Ukrainian air defense destroyed all 10 missiles. The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian forces launched two S-300(*) missiles targeting critical infrastructure in Kharkiv City during the day on June 1. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that Ukraine cannot strike launch points of Russian Iskander missiles in Russia as Ukraine is under obligations not to strike Russian territory with Western-provided weapons. ISW has previously assessed that Russian forces began a new limited air campaign in recent months to degrade Ukrainian counteroffensive capabilities, but that the Russian prioritization of Kyiv is likely further limiting the campaign’s ability to meaningfully constrain potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions.

https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/karte-ukraine-krieg-russland-frontverlauf-truppenbewegungen

Entlang der Frontlinie Awdijiwka-Donezk-Stadt haben russische Truppen zuletzt ebenfalls begrenzte Bodenangriffe durchgeführt. So zeigen nach Einschätzung des ISW geolokalisierte Aufnahmen, dass die russischen Streitkräfte einen begrenzten Vorstoß nördlich von Krasnohoriwka (acht Kilometer nördlich von Awdijiwka) unternommen haben. Der ukrainische Generalstab berichtet, dass dieser Angriff und eine weitere Offensivoperation in der Nähe von Sjewerne (sechs Kilometer westlich von Awdijiwka) abgewehrt worden seien.

Unterdessen konzentriert die russische Armee weiter Ausrüstung und Soldaten im Süden der Ukraine. So berichtet der ukrainische Berater des Bürgermeisters von Mariupol, Petro Andrjuschtschenko, dass die russischen Besatzungstruppen in der Südukraine altes Gerät – darunter T-72- und T-62-Panzer und Luftabwehrsysteme – ersetzten. Nach Angaben Andrjuschtschenkos werden die Waffensysteme derzeit aus Angst vor ukrainischen Angriffen auf Mariupol und Berdjansk verlagert. Laut ISW bestätigen geolokalisierte Bilder die Militärbewegungen

(*) I thought that they are built for air defense by the ukrainian armed forces.

Some commentaries from zeit.de/politik/

DoktorPampelmuse
vor 21 Stunden
Die Geschehnisse an der Kreminna-Front sind relativ belanglos. Es ist aktuell ein stetiges hin und her. Die Ukraine hat kein Interesse dorthin mehr Truppen zu entsenden und Russland ist bereits am absoluten Ende seiner Leistungsfähigkeit angelangt. Aus Sicht der Ukraine ist es nur gut, wenn dort russische Truppen gebunden sind. Der Krieg wird sich im Süden entscheiden.

Rasppe
gestern
Entfernt. Bitte belegen Sie Ihre Behauptungen mit entsprechenden Quellen. Danke, die Redaktion/dl

bbinvorort
vor 2 Tagen
Der Russische Angriffskrieg wird leider annähernd "30 jährige Krieg Ausmaße annehmen", so schnell wird keine Partei nachgeben, geschweige denn Siegen und ich neige nicht zum Pessimismus.
K0

Klausabc2.0
vor 2 Tagen
Ich wunder mich nur noch. Hat man zu Beginn des Konflikts darauf hingewiesen dass man eine Eskalation des Konflikts befürchtet, wurde man von Mitkommentatoren zurechtgewiesen. Schwerer Waffen - undenkbar. Jets - auf keinen Fall. Angriffe aufs russische Kernland - völlig ausgeschlossen.
Und jetzt zieht uns die Ukraine immer weiter in eine Eskalation hinein. Ich wohne auf dem Lande, da wird schon nichts passieren. Aber die Bedenkenträger der Vergangenheit hatten durchaus Recht.

Systemstatus
vor 2 Tagen
"In der Ostukraine verzeichnet Russland leichte Gebietsgewinne, andernorts wehrt die Ukraine Angriffe ab. "
Was ist mit der Offensive, die seit drei Monaten jeden Moment beginnen soll?

Institute for the Study of War

#ISW assessed on September 11 that the loss of Izyum doomed the initial Russian campaign plan to attack Slovyansk from multiple directions and that even the seizure of #Bakhmut would “no longer support any larger effort to accomplish the original objectives of this phase of the campaign since it would not be supported by an advance from Izyum in the north.” ISW also assessed that Russian offensive operations against Bakhmut and around Donetsk City have “lost any real operational significance for Moscow and merely waste some of [Russia’s] extremely limited effective combat power.”

Wagner mercenaries shifted their approach to seizing Bakhmut to a focus on encircling and trapping Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut City by expending a high proportion of their estimated 40,000 prisoner recruits in deadly human wave attacks. At least 22,000 prisoners disappeared from Russian prisons between October and November 2022 alone - likely as a result of Wagner’s prisoner recruitment efforts. A Russian opposition outlet concluded that 55 percent of the total reported Wagner fatalities in October occurred just on October 24 and October 27 – when Ukrainian forces resisted Wagner assaults on the eastern outskirts of the city. The outlet concluded that the number of social media reports commemorating Wagner servicemen increased by more than 2.5 times as they were committed to suicidal drives on Bakhmut’s immediate outskirts.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/kremlin%E2%80%99s-pyrrhic-victory-bakhmut-retrospective-battle-bakhmut

#Russia #Prigozhin #Ukraine

Institute for the Study of War

De-nazification continuing at steady pace:

The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) proposed a draft bill aimed at appealing to growing anti-migrant sentiments in Russia and supporting the Russian military’s efforts to recruit migrants. The MVD submitted a draft bill on May 5 that would allow employers to deprive migrant employees of their work permits and create expanded administrative supervision over the residence of foreign citizens in Russia. The draft bill states that the administrative supervision regime is aimed at establishing the whereabouts of foreign citizens illegally staying in Russia, although a Russian source claimed that the measure will allow Russian officials and police to freely enter the homes of migrants. The MVD added an explanatory note to the bill in which it argued that ”illegal migration is closely related to such negative phenomena as terrorism, extremism, human trafficking, [and] drug trafficking.” The reasoning offered for the bill is similar to Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin’s recent accusation that migrants destabilize Russia by importing terrorism and extremist ideologies. The bill is reflective of growing domestic ramifications from the wide acceptance of the Kremlin’s ”Russification” ideology, which ISW previously assessed is increasingly manifesting itself in how Russian authorities and ultranationalists negatively portray ethnic minorities and migrants in Russia. Russian officials also disproportionally focus recruitment efforts on migrant communities, and the bill could set conditions for Russian officials to leverage jeopardized migration statuses to coerce migrants into signing contracts with the Russian military.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-5-2023

#ISW #Russia #Fascism

Institute for the Study of War