In general, the battle in the #Donbas is more politically significant for Russia than it is for Ukraine. #Ukraine can afford to trade territory for attrition, and hope to retake it afterward. This has been the basis of Ukraine’s strategy since the start of the war. The Russian #military has a structural problem with force availability, and is not designed to sustain war of this scale at ‘peace time’ strength. Stopgap solutions can extend Russia’s staying power in this war, but not resolve those fundamental challenges. Hence, even though the local military balance in the Donbas appears favorable to #Russia, the overall trends in the military balance still favor Ukraine. That is a conditional assessment, based on the current situation, and the assumption that Ukraine receives sustained military support, along with other forms of battlefield relevant assistance from the #West.
Predicting battlefield outcomes is often a fool’s errand. It overemphasizes tactical events, rather than strategic outcomes. Few things are contingent as armed conflict, and the turning points in a war are often best seen in hindsight. During operational pauses, or lulls in fighting, it will be tempting for observers to declare a stalemate. Yet this #war is likely to become protracted, as such wars often do.

https://ridl.io/en/the-russia-ukraine-war-100-days-in/ #weapons