"I won my three year AI progress bet in three months." "Making a bet on whether AI image models could draw some compositionality-heavy pictures by 2025."

"DALL-E2 is bad at 'compositionality', ie combining different pieces accurately. For example, here's its response to 'a red sphere on a blue cube, with a yellow pyramid on the right, all on top of a green table'."

"1. A stained glass picture of a woman in a library with a raven on her shoulder with a key in its mouth"

"2. An oil painting of a man in a factory looking at a cat wearing a top hat"

"3. A digital art picture of a child riding a llama with a bell on its tail through a desert"

"4. A 3D render of an astronaut in space holding a fox wearing lipstick"

"5. Pixel art of a farmer in a cathedral holding a red basketball"

"Imagen got 3/5 and so I would say it wins the bet."

"The original bet from June of this year was about whether AIs would be able to do this by 2025, ie three years from now. In fact, not only did they reach this level in three months, but probably they were at this level before the bet was even made -- Google announced Imagen in May 2022; it just took me three months to convince someone there to run my prompts."

I won my three year AI progress bet in three months

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