3 Persons are tagged with #futurology

#futurology

waynerad@pluspora.com
Wayne Radinsky

Scott Alexander Siskind, aka "Astral Codex Ten guy", weighs in on underpopulation concerns.

"1: Declining birth rates won't drive humans extinct, come on." "Not only are we not going to go extinct because of underpopulation, population is going to continue to rise for the next 80 years."

"2: Immigrant-friendly countries will keep growing." US will go from 330 million to 430 million in 2100. UK will go from 60 million to 80 million.

"3: Countries with low immigration will shrink, but mostly slowly." Brazil 210 million to 190 million in 2100. Germany 80 million to 70 million. Japan 125 million to 70 million. India 1.3 billion to a peak of 1.8 billion in 2060, then down to 1.6 billion in 2100. China 1.4 billion to 800 million in 2100.

"4: Big relative drops still imply high absolute populations." "But Japan and China will drop a lot. By 2100, there will only be 800 million Chinese and 70 million Japanese."

"5: Concerns about 'underpopulation' make more sense as being about demographic shift." "In high-immigration countries, declining birth rates will cause changing ethnic demographics, as native populations shrink and immigrant populations increase."

"6. Age pyramid concerns are real, but not compatible with technological unemployment concerns." "It's weird to be worried both that the future will be racked by labor shortages, and that we'll suffer from technological unemployment and need to worry about universal basic income."

"7: Dysgenics is real but pretty slow." "Another potential demographic shift in both types of country is shift among social classes / levels of educational attainment."

"8. Innovation concerns are real but probably overwhelmed by other factors." "Consider the century 1820-1920. It gave us the steamship, the railroad, the automobile, the factory, mass production, electricity, refrigeration, radio, the airplane, etc, etc, etc, with a population only about 10-20% as high as today."

"9. In the short-to-medium run, we're all dead." Alrighty then. Wait, one more...

"Appendix: The Amish inversion." "Suppose that there is a 2100 -- and even a 2200, 2300, etc. what happens if we extend current trends? Answer: the Amish take over the world."

Slightly against underpopulation worries

#futurology #demographics

Slightly Against Underpopulation Worries

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waynerad@diasp.org
Wayne Radinsky

Scott Alexander Siskind, aka "Astral Codex Ten guy", weighs in on underpopulation concerns.

"1: Declining birth rates won't drive humans extinct, come on." "Not only are we not going to go extinct because of underpopulation, population is going to continue to rise for the next 80 years."

"2: Immigrant-friendly countries will keep growing." US will go from 330 million to 430 million in 2100. UK will go from 60 million to 80 million.

"3: Countries with low immigration will shrink, but mostly slowly." Brazil 210 million to 190 million in 2100. Germany 80 million to 70 million. Japan 125 million to 70 million. India 1.3 billion to a peak of 1.8 billion in 2060, then down to 1.6 billion in 2100. China 1.4 billion to 800 million in 2100.

"4: Big relative drops still imply high absolute populations." "But Japan and China will drop a lot. By 2100, there will only be 800 million Chinese and 70 million Japanese."

"5: Concerns about 'underpopulation' make more sense as being about demographic shift." "In high-immigration countries, declining birth rates will cause changing ethnic demographics, as native populations shrink and immigrant populations increase."

"6. Age pyramid concerns are real, but not compatible with technological unemployment concerns." "It's weird to be worried both that the future will be racked by labor shortages, and that we'll suffer from technological unemployment and need to worry about universal basic income."

"7: Dysgenics is real but pretty slow." "Another potential demographic shift in both types of country is shift among social classes / levels of educational attainment."

"8. Innovation concerns are real but probably overwhelmed by other factors." "Consider the century 1820-1920. It gave us the steamship, the railroad, the automobile, the factory, mass production, electricity, refrigeration, radio, the airplane, etc, etc, etc, with a population only about 10-20% as high as today."

"9. In the short-to-medium run, we're all dead." Alrighty then. Wait, one more...

"Appendix: The Amish inversion." "Suppose that there is a 2100 -- and even a 2200, 2300, etc. what happens if we extend current trends? Answer: the Amish take over the world."

Slightly against underpopulation worries

#futurology #demographics

Slightly Against Underpopulation Worries

...

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waynerad@pluspora.com
Wayne Radinsky

PredictIt, a prediction market, has stopped addition of any new predictions to trade on with end dates after February 15, 2023, due to a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) decision. The fate of predictions already in the system with end dates after February 15, 2023, is unknown.

"The staff of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has withdrawn the No-Action letter (NAL) issued to Victoria University of Wellington and under which PredictIt has operated since 2014."

Notice to Traders - August 4th 2022

#futurology #predictionmarkets #futures

waynerad@diasp.org
Wayne Radinsky

PredictIt, a prediction market, has stopped addition of any new predictions to trade on with end dates after February 15, 2023, due to a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) decision. The fate of predictions already in the system with end dates after February 15, 2023, is unknown.

"The staff of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has withdrawn the No-Action letter (NAL) issued to Victoria University of Wellington and under which PredictIt has operated since 2014."

Notice to Traders - August 4th 2022

#futurology #predictionmarkets #futures

waynerad@pluspora.com
Wayne Radinsky

Fires at food processing plants this year are up to 95. However, according to "fact checking" site PolitiFact, 50 of these were fires set on purpose to destroy poultry that had contracted infectious disease, and none of the remaining had been declared "suspicious" by fire authorities, and in fact at least 15 have been declared "not suspicious". So... a lot of poultry destroyed to protect us from disease and just coincidentally in the same year a higher than average number of unrelated fires at food processing plants.

(Possible explanation I have heard is that due to employment conditions, food processing plants are understaffed, have untrained new hires, and these facilities have hot ovens and other equipment that constitute a fire hazard.)

PolitiFact | This 95-item list doesn’t prove there are ongoing plans to create food shortages

#futurology #agriculture

PolitiFact - This 95-item list doesn’t prove there are ongoing plans to create food shortages

It’s a frighteningly specific list of 95 agricultural incidents involving fires and "destroyed" poultry — and it’s all o

waynerad@diasp.org
Wayne Radinsky

Fires at food processing plants this year are up to 95. However, according to "fact checking" site PolitiFact, 50 of these were fires set on purpose to destroy poultry that had contracted infectious disease, and none of the remaining had been declared "suspicious" by fire authorities, and in fact at least 15 have been declared "not suspicious". So... a lot of poultry destroyed to protect us from disease and just coincidentally in the same year a higher than average number of unrelated fires at food processing plants.

(Possible explanation I have heard is that due to employment conditions, food processing plants are understaffed, have untrained new hires, and these facilities have hot ovens and other equipment that constitute a fire hazard.)

PolitiFact | This 95-item list doesn’t prove there are ongoing plans to create food shortages

#futurology #agriculture

PolitiFact - This 95-item list doesn’t prove there are ongoing plans to create food shortages

It’s a frighteningly specific list of 95 agricultural incidents involving fires and "destroyed" poultry — and it’s all o

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opensciencedaily@diasp.org
Future Powered

A 'nano-robot' built entirely from DNA to explore cell processes

Constructing a tiny robot from DNA and using it to study cell processes invisible to the naked eye... You would be forgiven for thinking it is science fiction, but it is in fact the subject of serious research. This highly innovative 'nano-robot' should enable closer study of the mechanical forces applied at microscopic levels, which are crucial for many biological and pathological processes.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/07/220728075911.htm
#energy, #futurology, #news, #renewable

A 'nano-robot' built entirely from DNA to explore cell processes

Constructing a tiny robot from DNA and using it to study cell processes invisible to the naked eye... You would be forgiven for thinking it is science fiction, but it is in fact the subject of serious research. This highly innovative 'nano-robot'...

opensciencedaily@diasp.org
Future Powered

Vortices Near Jupiter’s North Pole

As NASA’s Juno mission completed its 43rd close flyby of Jupiter on July 5, 2022, its JunoCam instrument captured this striking view of vortices — hurricane-like spiral wind patterns — near the planet’s north pole.
http://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/vortices-near-jupiter-s-north-pole
#RSS, #PV, #futurology, #news

Vortices Near Jupiter’s North Pole

As NASA’s Juno mission completed its 43rd close flyby of Jupiter on July 5, 2022, its JunoCam instrument captured this striking view of vortices — hurricane-like spiral wind patterns — near the planet’s north pole.

One person like that
waynerad@diasp.org
Wayne Radinsky

"I will never part with this camera. If (when) it breaks and it can't be repaired anymore, I will buy another one, and another one, until all of them are broken for all time. I'll buy another and another at all costs. Because not only is this my dream camera, but I also make good use of it."

"I did not fall into the landscape trap, I didn't decide to let it sit on the shelf (and get fungus again). The trick is just grabbing it before I go, taking it with me and finding ways to put it to work. Place my eyes enough times on that viewfinder until I can see the frame lines in real life. It's just a question of rewiring your brain, rewiring the way you view the world. A dream camera does that to you, it changes you. And sharing pictures is a way for me to share the way I see things, through my XPan. I feel proud writing this, and prouder if any of you made it this far into this review. But I also feel ashamed, as I've once again done the dark biddings of Fujifilm and Hasselblad."

We tend to think technology advances in a straight line from past to future. But not always, and not for everybody.

Also, this article has some nice landscape, and other, photos.

The curse of the Hasselblad XPan

#futurology #photography

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One person like that
opensciencedaily@diasp.org
Future Powered

California could decarbonise faster with nuclear, study finds

Extending operations at the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant would greatly reduce carbon emissions and natural gas use and could help California reach its decarbonisation goals years earlier than it otherwise would, according to a new study carried out by Brattle Group and released by Carbon Free California.
https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/California-could-decarbonise-faster-with-nuclear,?feed=feed
#energy, #hydrogen, #renewable, #PV, #futurology

1 Comments
opensciencedaily@diasp.org
Future Powered

Energy-efficient AI hardware technology via a brain-inspired stashing system?

Researchers have proposed a novel system inspired by the neuromodulation of the brain, referred to as a 'stashing system,' that requires less energy consumption. Computer scientists have now developed a technology that can efficiently handle mathematical operations for artificial intelligence by imitating the continuous changes in the topology of the neural network according to the situation.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/05/220517210435.htm
#solar, #futurology, #photovoltaic, #sustainability, #PV

Energy-efficient AI hardware technology via a brain-inspired stashing system?

Researchers have proposed a novel system inspired by the neuromodulation of the brain, referred to as a 'stashing system,' that requires less energy consumption. Computer scientists have now developed a technology that can efficiently handle...

waynerad@diasp.org
Wayne Radinsky

"A perennial tech narrative is new and shiny versus tried and true. We all know that person would try out all the latest tech, and we also all know someone who is still using decades-old technology. Even you can switch sides at different points in your career, and this is natural. This eternal conflict is a necessity to drive innovation and produce progress."

"Taking the learnings of the SIR model (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered), we can say with certainty that technology's hype/popularity has a beginning, a peak, and an end. While it is not always clear something has peaked, it is pretty obvious once it is in decline. We make predictions about where a particular technology is heading."

The Kermack-McKendrick SIR Model is an epidemiological model invented in the 1920s. With it, we can construct an infection curve by specifying a disease's contagion rate and recovery rate. "The claim is that narratives too follow this curve."

Perennial narrative: new and shiny vs tried and true

#solidstatelife #futurology #adoptioncurves

Perennial Narrative: New and Shiny vs Tried and True

How Robert Shiller's Narrative Economics also drives the narratives in tech.

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