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#demographics

waynerad@diasp.org
Wayne Radinsky

"Charted: The rapid decline of global birth rates."

1950-2021 for the world's 50 most populous countries. Eh, 49 most populous. It's a 7x7 grid.

There's an interactive table further down the page where you can sort by birth rate for 1950, 1990, or 2021, or the change between 1950 and 2021.

Charted: The rapid decline of global birth rates

#futurology #demographics #fertility

Charted: The Rapid Decline of Global Birth Rates

For the last 70 years, birth rates for the 49 most populous countries of the world have fallen sharply, heralding an uncertain future.

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waynerad@diasp.org
Wayne Radinsky

According to this video, Iran is now a Muslim-minority country, despite being "The Islamic Republic of Iran" since 1979 and enforcing Islamic law, including the death penalty for apostasy. Not only that, but the exodus from Islam happening right now in Iran is the fastest exodus from any religion ever in the history of humanity. I know religion is a touchy subject but if this is true it seems very "futurology-relevant".

The secret atheists of the Arab world - Atheist Republic

#futurology #demographics #religion

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tpq1980@iviv.hu
T Q

Population density of European countries with at least 5 million population, 2023.

As you can see from this data, the UK is the third most population dense country of all countries in the European continent region with at least 5 million population.

There is no necessity or justification for mass migration into the United Kingdom. The UK is a relatively small island nation & space is at a premium.

#unitedkingdom #immigration #migration #massmigration #immigrationcontrol #uk #replacementmigration #population #usa #populationdensity #ethnography #elites #overpopulation #anthropology #statistics #stats #data #demographics #globalism #ethnolinguisticfragmentation #culture #england #wales #scotland #greatbritain #northernireland #autochthonousculture

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tpq1980@iviv.hu
T Q

#Trends between total crime rate per 100,000 of population in 287 localities in #England and #Wales and percentage of locality population that is not '#White #British' in those 287 localities, 2023.

This is an #analysis of official #UK #government #ONS #data that shows quite clearly that as the #percentage of population that is not 'White British' goes down, so does the total rate of #crime per 100k of #population.

In other words, as the percentage of 'non-White-British' within the population of a locality goes up, the total crime rate per 100k of population also goes up.

#ethnography #correlation #statistics #un #globalism #immigration #massmigration #criminality #truth #facts #empiricism #usa #anthropology #sociology #ukgovernment #demographics #law #tories

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tpq1980@iviv.hu
T Q

United Kingdom Nett Legal #Migration 1950 to 2023, with party #political overlay.

Total nett legal migration from 1950 to 2005 was 1,872,475.

Total nett legal migration from 2006 to 2023 was 6,535,892. +349%.

Average nett legal migration p/year from 1950 to 2005 was 33,437.

Average nett legal migration p/year from 2006 to 2023 was 363,105. +1086%.

#massmigration #unitedkingdom #uk #usa #immigration #multiculturalism #globalism #westerncivilization #netimmigration #eu #nettimmigration #demographics #elitism #ethnography #overpopulation #economics #sovereignty #nationalsovereignty #data #analysis #socialengineering #eugenics #culturalmarxism #culturalfragmentation #ethnolinguisticfragmentation #assimilation #culturalenclaves #neoliberalism #neoliberalglobalism

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tpq1980@iviv.hu
T Q

Population #density of countries with more than 20 million #population.

The #UK is 10th out of 62, putting it within the top 17% of most population dense #countries with more than 20 million population & within the top 20% most population dense of all polities on #Earth.

Clearly there is no necessity or justification for mass #migration into the UK when there are 193 other polities out of a total of 241 that are less population dense than the UK.

#populationdensity #demographics #uk #un #massmigration #openborders #elitism #immigration #globalism #neoliberalism #elitism #wewereneverasked #usa #eu #thewest #westerncivilization #democracy #wages #houseprices #multiculturalism #rentprices #wagestagnation #costofliving #birthrates #demographicchange #analysis #data

waynerad@diasp.org
Wayne Radinsky

Peter Turchin interviewed by Aaron Bastani. Interesting to see Peter Turchin as I've read two of his book but never seen him before. Well, I don't know if "read" is the right term for one of the books. The two books are Age Of Discord and Figuring Out The Past. And speaking of books, he's got a new one out, which is the occasion of this interview.

Age Of Discord was about how societies go through cycles of cohesion and integration vs disintegration and internal conflict. But first I should mention that Peter Turchin is a "quantitative historian" -- he looks at history quantitatively, through numbers and math. The model he presents in Age Of Discord uses 44 variables in differential equations. You probably won't be surprised he found we're in a disintegrative phase. And he predicted it would not end soon.

Figuring Out The Past is a book of data. It has thousands of numbers and other data points on historical civilizations, hundreds of kingdoms, empires, and countries from ancient times to modern times, with all sorts of information on their populations, governance structures, taxation systems, economic systems, agricultural systems, methods of warfare, and so on. I can't say I've "read" this book as that would be reading data tables. It's more accurate to say I've "browsed" it. It's always interesting to flip around and read about the various civilizations that existed in history.

As for the current book, it's called End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration. I've ordered it but haven't read it yet. Hopefully it'll be written in less academese language than his Age Of Discord book. That's the reason I haven't been recommending it to people. From this discussion, it looks like Peter Turchin isn't just predicting the current period of turmoil will persist for a while before things get better. It looks like he's predicting the turmoil will get worse -- possibly a lot worse, and that we might be in "End Times" -- the end of the current political order.

In this interview, he uses a lot of the concepts I'm familiar with from Age Of Discord but which people seem to frequently misunderstand, in part because of his lousy terminology. Turchin may be a smart guy and brilliant with differential equations, but, he's not very good at inventing terminology that resonates with regular people. One such terms you'll see pop up in this discussion is "elite overproduction". People frequently think this means, for example, too large a percentage of the population getting college degrees, then being upset when they don't get "elite" jobs but end up working as baristas. That's not actually what Turchin means by "elite overproduction", not at all.

What he's talking about is when a society becomes highly unequal in its wealth distribution, not only do the vast majority of people become poorer while a wealthy elite becomes richer, but the number of rich people increases. This might be counterintuitive. The number of rich people is still small compared to the masses. But the number of rich people is large compared with the number of positions of political power.

If you imagine a position of political power, such as a governorship of a state. If there is only one person who wants the job, then that person gets the job. If there are a few people who want the job, then there's competition for the job, but maybe not too much. But if a lot of people become very wealthy and, instead of setting their sights on escaping poverty and becoming wealthy, set their sights on political power, now suddenly you have thousands of people competing for that governorship. And the fight can become very vicious. In Age Of Discord, Turchin shows how this competition can be quantified, in, for example, the amount of money that has to be spent to acquire a political office, which the candidate must either have from their own wealth or be able to fundraise through their personal connections to other rich people. The "price" of political office has gone up and up and up, with Presidential campaigns costing in the billions. This is what Turchin is referring to when he uses the phrase "elite overproduction". And why he thinks "elite overproduction" leads to social division and disintegration.

It has nothing to do with how many people get college degrees. If you have a college degree but your ambition in life is to make more money and not political power, because you don't yet have so many millions that making more money for its own sake has lost its meaning for you, you don't count as "elite".

This is a pretty wide-ranging conversation, ranging from European and Russian history to current-day US politics. For non-college educated people, life has not just been stagnating, it has been getting worse -- purchasing power has been going down and down and down. It now takes 4 times as much money to put a child through college as it did in the 1970s. This is because more and more people want out of the declining 90% and into the 10% for whom life is getting better. Turchin has another term for this which won't catch on, "popular immiseration". This opens the door for elites to break ranks from other elites and try to obtain political power by becoming "populists", appealing to the discontent of the masses. It looks like in his new books, Turchin refers to these elites as "counter-elites".

Is the West heading towards social breakdown? | Aaron Bastani meets Peter Turchin | Downstream - Novara Media

#geopolitics #domesticpolitics #economics #demographics #history #cliodynamics

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