Eurasia Group's top risks for 2024. "Ungoverned AI" is #4. #1 is "The United States vs itself". So we, and our upcoming election, expected to continue the trend of every election being crazier than the previous, is the planet's greatest risk.
On the flip side, they dismiss "US-China crisis" as a "red herring". Whew, I guess we can relax and not worry about that. Also "Populist takeover of European politics" and "BRICS vs G7".
"Risk 1: The United States vs itself: The 2024 election will test American democracy to a degree the nation hasn't experienced in 150 years."
"Risk 2: Middle East on the brink: The region is a tinderbox, and the number of players carrying matches makes the risk of escalation exceptionally high."
"Risk 3: Partitioned Ukraine: Ukraine will be de facto partitioned this year, an unacceptable outcome for Ukraine and the West that will nevertheless become reality."
"Risk 4: Ungoverned AI: Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence will move much faster than governance efforts."
"Risk 5: Axis of rogues: Deeper alignment and mutual support between Russia, Iran, and North Korea will pose a growing threat to global stability."
"Risk 6: No China recovery: Any green shoots in the Chinese economy will only raise false hopes of a recovery as economic constraints and political dynamics prevent a durable growth rebound."
"Risk 7: The fight for critical minerals: The scramble for critical minerals will heat up as importers and exporters intensify their use of industrial policies and trade restrictions."
"Risk 8: No room for error: The global inflation shock that began in 2021 will continue to exert a powerful economic and political drag in 2024."
"Risk 9: El Nino is back: A powerful El Nino climate pattern will bring extreme weather events that cause food insecurity, increase water stress, disrupt logistics, spread disease, and fuel migration and political instability."
"Risk 10: Risky business: Companies caught in the crossfire of US culture wars will see their decision-making autonomy limited and their cost of doing business rise."
"Red herrings: US-China crisis. Populist takeover of European politics. BRICS vs G7."
"Addendums: These addendums for Brazil, Canada, Europe, and Japan further illustrate how global risks play out in different parts of the world, with specific implications for governments and businesses."
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