#nullschool

dredmorbius@joindiaspora.com

Kolyma highway in Yakutia, also known as the Road of Bones, is on fire and temporarily shut

More than 2,000 people are deployed in extinguishing wildfires raging around Russia’s coldest inhabited territory, Yakutia, now in the third year of extremely intense season of wildfires.

The first of them ignited as early as the beginning of May right outside the world-famous Pole of Cold, the village of Oymyakon in northeastern Yakutia known for its record low temperatures.

Wildfires continued through May and June, with extra fire extinguishing forces needing to be sent from other regions to help republic’s own teams.

Today Kolyma highway, the major road connecting republic’s capital Yakutsk and the port town of Magadan on the Sea of Okhotsk, had to be shut because the fire got too close to the road and was much too fierce for safe driving.

After looking at the heat and subsequent fires in the Pacific Northwest, I looked through Nullschool's Earth viewer for other areas under peril.

The Yakutia region of Siberia is under a staggering amount of wildfire. The fires seem to have been burning since May, though by both particulate and CO channels at Nullschool, have exploded in size and intensity in just the past 48 hours or so (that would be after the dateline of this article).

Several videos on the article show conditions on the ground.

A snapshot of current conditions as noted by Nullschool:

Particulate channel, shows the location generally of smoke. I've selected the PM1 rather than PM2.5 channel as the latter is somewhat noisier, though it's generally what's used for smoke tracking. Both are fine particulate matter.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/07/02/2200Z/particulates/surface/level/overlay=pm1/orthographic=-204.37,53.63,974/loc=135.098,61.931

CO channel, where carbon monoxide is a much more specific indication of where there is current combustion. These signal regions themselves are immense. My eyeball estimate is that this is roughly the size of the state of Oregon.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2021/07/02/2200Z/chem/surface/level/overlay=cosc/orthographic=-204.37,53.63,974/loc=135.098,61.931

The region on Google Maps: https://www.google.com/maps/@61.9357692,135.147793,8z/data=!5m1!1e4?hl=en

https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/kolyma-highway-in-yakutia-also-known-as-the-road-of-bones-is-on-fire-and-temporarily-shut/

#wildfire #bushfire #siberia #yakutia #nullschool #ClimateChange #SiberianTimes

dredmorbius@joindiaspora.com

Tropical Weather: Another two possible systems after Iota

This is based on the Nullschool Earth weather visualiser, and is tentative, but looking out five days to November 18, there seem to be another two tropical systems forming. One NE of Hispaniola, the other north of Venezuela. Iota is also shown just south of Yucatan.

These will be storms #31 & #32, Kappa and Lambda.

Links currently indicate projected system centres. These may move with time.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/11/18/0600Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-72.84,18.74,1165/loc=-64.928,22.876

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/11/18/0600Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-72.84,18.74,1165/loc=-77.204,13.384

#TropicalWeather #nullschool #weather #hurricanes #TropicalStorms #Caribbean #GulfOfMexico

dredmorbius@joindiaspora.com

Nullschool's Earth Weather Visualiser particulate data stream update on October 6, 2020

Looking at particulate data (useful for tracking wildffire smoke) there's far greater indicated prevalence reported after 1200Z on that date, especially over oceans.

Contrast before (1200Z) and after (1300Z).

Data sources are given as CAMS / Copernicus / EC + ECMWF, see about page.

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/

And yes, a system update at the site:

This upgrade combines four significant scientific changes which will make the CAMS global forecasts even more accurate and robust:

  • The anthropogenic emissions have been updated to a newer version. In addition, the diurnal cycle and vertical injection height of the emissions for some pollutants, such as SO2, have been refined.
  • The parametrisations that model the emission of sea salt and desert dust have been updated resulting in better agreement with measured sea salt aerosol concentrations and reducing an overestimation of dust in the Sahara, the Middle East and other regions.
  • The modelling of stratospheric ozone has been updated with an improved hybrid linear ozone scheme, which improves the vertical profile of stratospheric ozone in the forecasts.
  • The assimilation of volcanic SO2 observations from the Sentinel-5p/TROPOMI instrument has been activated.

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/index.php/cams-upgrades-its-global-forecasting-system

#nullschool #whetherVisualiser #particulates #PM25 #copernicus #ECMWF

dredmorbius@joindiaspora.com

Eastern Atlantic Tropical Storm Activity Picking Up?

Looking at Nullschool’s weather visualiser, it looks as if storm activity may be picking up.

This is based on activity at the extreme of the forecast period (September 8th, five days out), but there looks to be a likely well-formed Cape Verde system developing, along with another two smaller systems further west.

This is all pretty speculative, though the systems should begin developing on the 5th as a swirl breaks off of the western Sahara.

Tracks are anyone’s guess, and these could swing north into the Atlantic, slam into the Yucatan, or go pretty much anywhere between. But keep an eye out.

Western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico sea surface temps are high, so storm intensity should a system reach there, will likely be high.

The linked view is currently highlighting the largest, eastmost storm, in mean sea-level ressure (MSLP) view. The green circle is over the projected eye location as I post this, forecast/actual track will deviate from this as we approach September 8, 2020.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/09/08/0600Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-53.79,2.94,816/loc=-23.835,18.488

#weather #hurricanes #TropicalStorm #nullschool