COVID-19 Iran: Backing out possible cases by deaths data

This is personal speculation not grounded in any sources. Treat accordingly.

The observed case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 has been about 2-3%, based on Chinese data. There is some reason to believe middle-east susceptibility based on genetic factors is lower than in China, a fact which will actually amplify my conclusions.

Given limited testing and disclosures, coming up with numbers for actual cases in various countries and regions is difficult. Iran quite particularly so, though one could make an argument for the U.S. as well.

Iran officially reports 54 deaths from COVID-19 (Reuters, 2020-03-01), and 978 infected.

This gives a CFR of 5.5%, which is more than double the Chinese rate. That is much higher than expected.

At a 2% CFR, we'd expect the actual basis to be 2,700 cases. At 3%, 1,800.

The baseline would be the case count two weeks ago, with a weekly growth rate of about 10x (see the cases & deaths chart from my earlier summary), which would put actual current infections at 180,000 - 270,000, if containment has been ineffective.

There are reasons to believe Iran's reporting of deaths has itself been downplayed.

On February 28, the BBC reported Iranian coronavirus deaths as high as 210. This gives a range for 7,000 - 10,500 cases, again, two weeks ago, or 100x that now, at 700,000 - 1,050,000.

There are reasons to suspect that number is inflated (it's the bad news the British might be keen to hear). So take it with a grain of salt.

But we end up with a range of possible current infections within Iran between 180,000 and over 1 million.

Which would be a pretty serious situation.

Again, this is speculation, and it's unconfirmed by any reputable sources of which I'm aware. Consider it a possible bounds check on Iranian cases, and any corroborating or debunking sources are strongly appreciated.

#iran #covid-19 #ncov2019 #coronavirus #epidemic #speculation