09.09.2023 Es geht abwärts

Konfrontation zieht Aktienkurse runter

Abwärts ... nicht nur mit der deutschen Wirtschaft. Selbst ein Teil der Big5, der Konzern Apple musste in der letzten Woche negative Zahlen hinnehmen. Nach dem Verbot Technologie des chinesichen Huawei Konzerns in die USA einzuführen und in eigener Technik zu verbauen, kam jetzt die Retoure aus China.

Es wird "angedeutet", dass die chinesische Regierung das iPhone für Millionen Staatsangestellte verbieten könnte. Allein diese Andeutung hat die Apple Aktie bereits um 3% abstürzen lassen - für Apple ist das ein ganz ungewöhnliches Verhalten.

Nzz.ch schreibt: Da Apple mit einem Börsenwert von 2,8 Billionen Dollar das wertvollste Unternehmen der Welt ist, zog das den amerikanischen Tech-Index Nasdaq ins Minus und viele andere Indizes in den USA und weltweit.

Dass Konfrontation statt Kooperation schlecht fürs Geschäft ist, hat nicht nur der US Markt im letzten Jahr gemerkt. Auch China selbst bleibt von den Turbolenzen nicht ungeschoren. Wieder nzz.ch: Nachdem der chinesische Immobilienkonzern Country Garden bereits Ende August in Schieflage geraten war, meldete Ende vergangener Woche ein noch grösserer, Evergrande, Insolvenz an.

Das ist für die chinesische Wirtschaft ein wichtiger Index, da die Bauindustrie für ein Viertel der chinesischen Wirtschaftsleistung verantwortlich ist. Nzz.ch weist abschließend darauf hin, dass die Verbindlichkeiten der in Konkurs gegangenen Evergrande-Gruppe allein so hoch wie das Bruttoinlandprodukt der Schweiz sind. Und bei der Schweiz schließt sich der Kreis, denn wir erinnern uns noch gut an die Nachricht aus dem letzten März: Der Schweiz bleibt nur noch eine Großbank - da gingen auch Milliarden den Bach runter.

Mehr dazu bei https://www.nzz.ch/finanzen/apple-hat-probleme-in-china-die-us-tech-boerse-ist-auf-dem-rueckzug-ist-jetzt-die-zeit-short-zu-gehen-ja-sagt-michael-burry-der-kultinvestor-aus-dem-hollywood-film-the-long-short-ld.1755347
und https://www.nzz.ch/finanzen/reisst-china-die-boersen-in-den-abgrund-stand-jetzt-nein-dennoch-ist-die-chinesische-immobilien-krise-fuer-europa-und-die-schweiz-eine-schlechte-nachricht-ld.1753310
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Tags: #Aktienkurse #Abwärtsspirale #Apple #iPhone #Big5 #China #USA #Huawei #Wirtschaft #Immobilienblase #UBS #Schweiz #Evergrande

The economic miracle of the People’s Republic had some key features: Ever-rising home prices, surging household #debt, and a real estate sector that broadly contributes to one third of #GDP. Wary of an asset price bubble, #Xi drew three “red lines” last year to restrict financing and force developers to deleverage. A flurry of defaults ensued, including that of #property giant #China Evergrande (3333.HK), forcing bondholders to accept extensions or chase lawsuits. The #revolt on mortgage payments underscores #Beijing’s failure to ensure the losses stop there.
It puts the focus on China’s property buying preferences. New launches are almost always sold before they are built. When heavily indebted developers run out of cash, buyers are left with nothing but a debt obligation. #Evergrande warned of this problem in a letter it wrote in 2020 to local authorities: The company pleaded to be allowed to list a subsidiary to avoid a cash crunch that it said would cause huge financial and social risks, including two million buyers who might #protest over their 600,000-odd unfinished apartments.

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/china-property-crisis-enters-dangerous-next-phase-2022-07-14/ #economy #crisis

Auch in den #USA haben die Grundstückspreise begonnen, zu sinken; die #Deflation beginnt mitten in der #Inflation und durch sie hindurch.
Die amerikanischen Staatspapiere haben eine interessante Preisbewegeung gezeigt: die Rendite der kurzfristigen Papiere steigt über die der langfristigen. Das ist, sagen die Ökonomen, ein Alarmzeichen; es zeigt üblicherweise eine kommende Rezession an, oder genauer, es zeigt, dass die Kapitalmärkte von einer kommenden Rezession ausgehen. Aber natürlich ist diese Erwartung selbst einer der Auslöser der #Rezession.

https://dasgrossethier.noblogs.org/2022/07/die-naechste-krise-iii/ #china #evergrande #krise #wirtschaft

Charlene Chu, famed among #China watchers for warning about a debt bubble when at Fitch Ratings, says that pain is only just beginning for credit extended to Chinese #property.
In the wake of #Beijing’s sweeping crackdown on leverage built up in #realestate, China #Evergrande Group and others have defaulted on a slew of bonds. Chu, a senior analyst at Autonomous Research, a division of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., estimated that “we have 30 companies who’ve defaulted with total liabilities of around $1 trillion.”
While banks have the safeguard of collateral for their loans to developers, “where things could start to get a lot more ugly” is if lenders start revaluing that collateral lower, Chu said in a June 15 interview with the One Decision podcast.
“We’re just so early in this process of these defaults happening, and restructurings usually take quite a long time,” said Chu, who was known at Fitch for warning in the early 2010s over debt risks in the shadow #banking sector. “We haven’t really gotten to the point of saying, ‘OK, well, what really is going to happen with that building?’”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/china-property-slide-early-in-game-after-1-trillion-defaults #finance #crisis #economy

Some Chinese property developers are going to extreme lengths to attract buyers.
From accepting grain or garlic as part payment, to offering live pigs as an incentive to buyers, the unusual sales tactics underline the dire state of China's vast #realestate industry. A collapse in sales has accelerated since developer #Evergrande defaulted on its debt last year as the #economy has slowed.
Central #China Management — a sister company of Central China Real Estate, the largest developer in the central province of #Henan — said in a recent advertisement that it will accept down payments of wheat for houses in #Minquan county.
The ad was posted on the company's official WeChat account this week. Buyers can use the grain to offset as much as 160,000 yuan (nearly $24,000) of their down payment. The new homes the company is offering sell for between $100,000 and $124,000, according to Leju Holdings, a real estate services provider.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/22/economy/china-property-developers-wheat-garlic-hogs-intl-hnk/index.html #housing #debt #crisis

Wheat down payments and free hogs: How Chinese developers are trying to sell homes

Some Chinese property developers are going to extreme lengths to attract buyers.

Uncertainty Swirls Around #Evergrande as a Deadline Passes https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/23/business/china-evergrande-bond-payment.html #cn #china

Uncertainty Swirls Around Evergrande as a Deadline Passes

A payment on the troubled Chinese company’s dollar-denominated bonds was due Thursday. Its shares fell on Friday after the company said nothing.

A crise do mercado imobiliário da chinesa #Evergrande desencadeia medo de ‘efeito contágio’ -
https://brasil.elpais.com/internacional/2021-09-20/a-crise-do-mercado-imobiliario-da-chinesa-evergrande-desencadeia-medo-de-efeito-contagio-no-mundo.html -
Via El Pais Brasil - #Falência -
"...A gigante, com sede em Shenzhen, terá que arcar com pagamentos de juros milionários esta semana, ao passo que analistas temem não ser capaz ver essa dívida ser quitada. Os mercados têm o receio de que, se o Governo chinês não agir, as dificuldades da Evergrande possam desencadear uma onda de quebradeira e contaminar o setor financeiro, que injetou empréstimos para empresas e compradores..." -

A crise do mercado imobiliário da chinesa Evergrande desencadeia medo de ‘efeito contágio’

Mercados temem que a gigante da construção, a mais endividada do planeta, possa ir à falência antes dos vencimentos milionários desta semana