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#philippines

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adolar@diaspora.psyco.fr
Aladár Mézga

When people talk about the PRC and tensions and possible war, #Taiwan is usually mentioned as the likely target. There are however other places that may be further up on the list of PRC priorities. The place very likely at the top of that list is the "Second Thomas Shoal". You may have heard of "trouble" a Philippine resupply mission had with PRC boats harassing them. That just escalated significantly. Since many news reports don't mention where all this takes place, here is a map:
enter image description here

The #Philippines do not have a very impressive navy, they are not geared toward occupation or invasion. That means they are not a significant match for the boats and ships of the PRC. Enter allies, stage left:

China Slams US Ally for Multiple Intrusions Into Declared Chinese Waters

The "declared Chinese waters" are within the Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines, btw. The Second Thomas Shoal is for example 198km from the Philippines coast. The distance to the PRC coast is about 1000km. The EEZ extends 200 miles from a country's coast.

So the US offered support for the resupply missions, since PH boats had to fight not only PRC coast guard equipped with water cannons, but also the so-called "militia": officially fishing boats, usually with steel hull and remarkably organized. You won't find a second "fishing fleet" anywhere on the planet being that well organized. Anyway, the US offered support, but the PRC was not deterred.

China-Philippines maritime standoff escalating on path that could drag US into conflict, analysts warn

enter image description here

Despite all the harassment, this time the supply mission was successful. However, the PRC had to make a show of force.

Chinese ships swarmed into Second Thomas Shoal after Sunday's resupply confrontation

But, of course, it was other countries who "escalated" by not allowing the Philippines to be bullied.

China condemns Canada’s support for Philippines over South China Sea incidents

And the topping on the cake is to blame the Philippines for any incidents (like the PRC ramming a PH boat):

China blames Philippines for incidents in South China Sea

IMHO this could very quickly escalate even further and the reason may be the location of the Second Thomas Shoal. It is pretty much the southernmost point the PRC is claiming and should they succeed in occupying that place, then all the others between there and the PRC should fall much more easily. Thomas and Scarborough may be very important key locations for both the PRC and basically all other countries on the other side. Expect more news from there...

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ramnath@nerdpol.ch
ramnath

Over 100 aftershocks above magnitude 3 have been recorded since the M7.6 mainshock in the #Philippines. This animation shows the seismicity sequence thus far. The Philippines are an earthquake-prone region, located where the Philippine Sea Plate subducts beneath the Sunda Plate.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1731370225092698312

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