#futurology

opensciencedaily@diasp.org

Researchers create smaller, cheaper flow batteries for clean energy


Flow batteries offer a solution. Electrolytes flow through electrochemical cells from storage tanks in this rechargeable battery. The existing flow battery technologies cost more than $200/kilowatt hour and are too expensive for practical application, but engineers have now developed a more compact flow battery cell configuration that reduces the size of the cell by 75%, and correspondingly reduces the size and cost of the entire flow battery. The work could revolutionize how everything from major commercial buildings to residential homes are powered.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/01/230113145335.htm
#futurology, #photovoltaic, #renewable, #sustainability, #news


opensciencedaily@diasp.org

Lithium-sulfur batteries are one step closer to powering the future


A research team has built and tested a new interlayer to prevent dissolution of the sulfur cathode in lithium-sulfur batteries. This new interlayer increases Li-S cell capacity and maintains it over hundreds of cycles.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/01/230106144444.htm
#sustainability, #hydrogen, #futurology, #RSS, #news


waynerad@diasp.org

"Zeno's paradox and why modern technology is rubbish." Basically the idea is elevating

"The first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time."

to the level of a fundamental principle in technology, a "Zeno's paradox of technology". "Amazon Alexa is losing billions of dollars. Self Driving Cars are losing billions of dollars. The Metaverse is losing billions of dollars." Again and again, we see projects get 90% of the way there, but years go by and they can't do the last 10%.

Zeno's paradox and why modern technology is rubbish

#solidstatelife #technologylaws #futurology

opensciencedaily@diasp.org

Construction of US radioisotope facility complete


NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes' facility in Beloit, Wisconsin, has been built with financial and technical support from the US Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. It will produce molybdenum-99 without using highly enriched uranium.
https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Construction-of-US-radioisotope-facility-complete?feed=feed
#solarpower, #futurology, #solar, #RSS, #PV


waynerad@diasp.org

Extinction update. The population of vertebrate species shrank 52% between 1970 and 2010. Up that to 69% for 1970 to 2018.

"It seems the human-driven loss of species and climate change propel the decline of the population of vertebrates in an arithmetic progression every year now, with the monitored freshwater populations having dropped by an average of 84 percent since 1970, Europe and Asia recording a 94 percent decline in their biodiversity."

This is according to The Living Planet Report 2022 from the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF).

"Latin America shows the greatest regional decline in average population abundance (94%), while freshwater species populations have seen the greatest overall global decline (83%)."

"New mapping analysis techniques allow us to build up a more comprehensive picture of both the speed and the scale of changes in biodiversity and climate. For example, we feature the new biodiversity risk maps generated for the IPCC Working Group 2 report published in February 2022. These maps are the result of decades of work which has involved more than 1 million hours of computer time. We also explore an analysis using data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List which allows us to overlay six key threats -- agriculture, hunting, logging, pollution, invasive species and climate change -- to highlight 'threat hotspots' for terrestrial vertebrates."

"The Living Planet Index tracks the abundance of populations of mammals, birds, fish, reptiles and amphibians around the world. In 2022, the Index included almost 32,000 species populations, which is 11,000 more than in 2020, the largest increase yet in number of populations between two editions of this report."

"Based on 6,617 monitored populations, representing 1,398 species of mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and fish, the freshwater Living Planet Index provides an indication of the status of freshwater habitats. Since 1970 these populations have declined by an average of 83% (range: -74% to -89%). Using the largest sample size so far -- 454 new freshwater species and 2,876 new populations have been added to the dataset -- we can see that, as with the global Living Planet Index, the decline is similar to those presented in previous editions of the Living Planet Report."

"Only 37% of rivers longer than 1,000km remain free-flowing over their entire length. The Living Planet Index of freshwater migratory fish (fish that live in freshwater habitats either partly or exclusively) shows an average decline of 76% between 1970 and 2016, with habitat loss and modifications, in particular barriers to migration routes, accounting for around half of the threats to these populations."

"More than 140,000 species have been evaluated using information on life-history traits, population, distribution size and structure, and their change over time to assign them to one of eight categories: Extinct, Extinct in the Wild, Critically Endangered, Endangered, Vulnerable, Near Threatened, Least Concern, or Data Deficient."

"For five taxonomic groups in which all species have been assessed at least twice, the Red List Index (RLI) shows trends over time in their relative survival probability based on genuine changes in these Red List Categories. These data show that cycads (an ancient group of plants) are most threatened, while corals are declining fastest."

"Combining expert-based information from the IUCN Red List on the spatial distributions of and threats to all terrestrial amphibians, birds and mammals -- a total of 23,271 species -- we have generated global maps of the threat to these groups from agriculture, hunting and trapping, logging, pollution, invasive species and climate change."

See page 22 for the maps.

"The Himalayas, Southeast Asia, the east coast of Australia, the dry forest of Madagascar, the Albertine Rift and Eastern Arc Mountains in eastern Africa, the Guinean forests of West Africa, the Atlantic Forest, the Amazon basin and the Northern Andes into Panama and Costa Rica in South and Central America were all deemed 'high-priority areas for risk mitigation' for all taxonomic groups across all threat categories."

"The global abundance of 18 of 31 oceanic sharks and rays has declined by 71% over the last 50 years. This collapse in their abundance reflects an increase in extinction risk for most species. By 1980, nine of the 31 oceanic sharks and rays were threatened. By 2020, three-quarters (77%, 24 species) were threatened with an elevated risk of extinction. For example, the oceanic Whitetip Shark has declined by 95% globally over three generation lengths, and has consequently moved from Vulnerable to Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List."

"The Biodiversity Intactness Index ranges from 100-0%, with 100 representing an undisturbed natural environment with little to no human footprint. If the Biodiversity Intactness Index is 90% or more, the area has enough biodiversity to be a resilient and functioning ecosystem. Under 90%, biodiversity loss means ecosystems may function less well and less reliably. If the Biodiversity Intactness Index is 30% or less, the area's biodiversity has been depleted and the ecosystem could be at risk of collapse."

This is the age of extinction because civilization is hitting a dead end

#futurology #environment #evolution #massextinction

waynerad@diasp.org

Vintage inventions. Desk Beds, 1913. Stroller equipped with a radio, 1921. Car with shovel for pedestrians, 1924. Anti-distraction helmet, 1925. Portable and Extendable Bridge for emergencies, 1926. A turntable linked to a film projector, 1929. Laryngaphone (phone that uses vibrations from the vocal cords only to reduce noise), 1929. Wooden bathing suits, 1929. Breast Washer, 1930. Rocket-Propelled Bicycles, 1931. Amphibious Bicycle, 1932. Electrically heated vest for the traffic police, 1932. Piano for people confined to bedrest, 1935. Clap Skate (skate with movable heel plate),1936. Glasses for reading in bed, 1936. Window Baby Cages, 1937. Revolver camera, (Colt 38 with a small camera that automatically takes a picture when you pull the trigger), 1938. Ski-sailing, 1938. Wireless faxed newspaper, 1938. Snowstorm Mask, 1939. Cigarette Case to Keep Track, 1940. See-Through Boats, 1941. Soup-Cooling Spoons, 1948. Adhesive Bras, 1949. Pipe For Two, 1949. Suntan-Lotion Dispenser, 1949. Bald-Head Polishers, 1950. Dashboard Coffeemakers, 1950. Monopod Seats, 1953. Rainy Day Cigarette Holder, 1954. Automatic Tip Requesters, 1955. Comfort Lawn Mowers (lawn mower with a 5-foot-diameter plastic sphere in which the rider sits on an air-foam-cushioned seat), 1957. Nuclear Bomb Shelters, 1958. We might need some of these now. Glow-in-the-Dark Tires, 1961. Sunbathing foldable reflector, 1961. Anti-Bandit Bag, 1963. Cat Meow Machine, 1963. Sunning Chairs, 1964. The Snogometer, 1965. Spaghetti Spinners, 1968. Jetpacks, 1969. Vibrating Bras, 1971. Don't know the year for the bicycle for the whole family with the built-in sewing machine for the mother.

By way of commentary: As a "futurist" I focus on inventions because inventions change the world in a permanent way. Once something has been invented and people find it useful, it gets adopted all around the world and the world is a different place than it was before in some fundamental way. Other aspects of life may go in cycles; there may be economic cycles, population cycles, political cycles, or follow some other pattern, but an invention will change the whole world in one direction and it'll never go back. Furthermore, an invention, once adopted, will often be continuously improved, so later versions will be a lot different from the original, and will ofter become building blocks for later inventions, resulting in potentially an exponential proliferation of inventions. For example, the internal combustion engine was invented in 1876, but it doesn't appear on the list of inventions above because it's so much a part of our lives that we hardly think about it. There were many prior inventions, going all the way back to the 1790s, that went into the invention of the internal combustion engine, and since 1876, there have been a lot of improvements. It's also become a building block for later inventions, not just on obvious variations of the car, such as the motorbike or bus, but airplane engines and lawmowers and jet skis and so on. I recently read about drones in Ukraine built in Iran that use a moped engine, and apparently they're cheap and effective weapons.

Key to this process of invention, though, is experimentation, and not all the experiments pan out, in fact most of them don't. So people take the inventions that exist and experiment with those to come up with new inventions, and some of those succeed and become continuously improved and building blocks for more inventions, such that in retrospect, we can look back at the failed inventions of previous eras and laugh because from the vantage point of today, it's probably obvious why they failed. But of course, of the things that are being invented now, we don't know what's going to turn out to be successful and what isn't. You don't get to know until after you run the experiments and invent the inventions.

Bizarre and interesting vintage inventions from the past, 1920s-1970s - Rare Historical Photos

#inventions #futurology

waynerad@diasp.org

"How not to estimate the likelihood of nuclear war." This is worth passing along as I've been having similar thoughts as to how not to estimate the likelihood of nuclear war. You have the problem that there are no previous instances of global thermonuclear war, so if you try to use a "frequentist" approach, you end up dividing by zero (mentally or literally). So they talk about the Bayesian approach, but in my mind that doesn't help much as you, again, have literally zero previous instances to look to for insight, and you end up with your "priors" being based on "gut feeling" emotion. I'm glad they titled this "How not to estimate the likelihood of nuclear war" rather than "How to estimate the likelihood of nuclear war" because it doesn't say how to do that.

How not to estimate the likelihood of nuclear war

#futurology #superforecasting #nuclearwar

opensciencedaily@diasp.org

Honda, LG Energy Solution $3.5B battery plant joint venture set for Ohio, part of ‘EV hub’


Honda aims to begin EV production and sales in North America by 2026  2026, and make battery-electric and fuel cell EVs represent 100% of its vehicle sales in North America by 2040.
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/honda-announces-ohio-battery-plant/633976/
#renewable, #PV, #solarpower, #solar, #futurology


waynerad@diasp.org

"Like many people I've been quite amazed by all the progress with AI-generated art recently. One thing that has been clear, though, is that even though the modern crop of AIs are quite capable, they still need heavy human guidance to achieve good results. This fusion of humans and AIs has an existing name: centaurs."

"The main place I've heard this term used is in the chess world, where for a time the top competitors were these human+AI hybrids. It was a bit celebrated that for all their smarts, AIs still needed help from humans."

"Unfortunately that time has passed and chess AIs have nothing to gain from human help anymore, and chess centaurs are no longer competitive."

A new age of AI centaurs

#solidstatelife #ai #futurology

opensciencedaily@diasp.org

South Korea takes massive step toward sustainable nuclear fusion reactions


Scientists in Korea have succeeded in sustaining a plasma gas at 100 million kelvin for up to 20 seconds without significant instabilities, a feat thought to be a significant step forward in the quest for a sustainable nuclear fusion reaction.…
https://go.theregister.com/feed/www.theregister.com/2022/09/08/korea_sustained_fusion/
#photovoltaic, #renewable, #futurology, #solarpower, #energy


waynerad@pluspora.com

Scott Alexander Siskind, aka "Astral Codex Ten guy", weighs in on underpopulation concerns.

"1: Declining birth rates won't drive humans extinct, come on." "Not only are we not going to go extinct because of underpopulation, population is going to continue to rise for the next 80 years."

"2: Immigrant-friendly countries will keep growing." US will go from 330 million to 430 million in 2100. UK will go from 60 million to 80 million.

"3: Countries with low immigration will shrink, but mostly slowly." Brazil 210 million to 190 million in 2100. Germany 80 million to 70 million. Japan 125 million to 70 million. India 1.3 billion to a peak of 1.8 billion in 2060, then down to 1.6 billion in 2100. China 1.4 billion to 800 million in 2100.

"4: Big relative drops still imply high absolute populations." "But Japan and China will drop a lot. By 2100, there will only be 800 million Chinese and 70 million Japanese."

"5: Concerns about 'underpopulation' make more sense as being about demographic shift." "In high-immigration countries, declining birth rates will cause changing ethnic demographics, as native populations shrink and immigrant populations increase."

"6. Age pyramid concerns are real, but not compatible with technological unemployment concerns." "It's weird to be worried both that the future will be racked by labor shortages, and that we'll suffer from technological unemployment and need to worry about universal basic income."

"7: Dysgenics is real but pretty slow." "Another potential demographic shift in both types of country is shift among social classes / levels of educational attainment."

"8. Innovation concerns are real but probably overwhelmed by other factors." "Consider the century 1820-1920. It gave us the steamship, the railroad, the automobile, the factory, mass production, electricity, refrigeration, radio, the airplane, etc, etc, etc, with a population only about 10-20% as high as today."

"9. In the short-to-medium run, we're all dead." Alrighty then. Wait, one more...

"Appendix: The Amish inversion." "Suppose that there is a 2100 -- and even a 2200, 2300, etc. what happens if we extend current trends? Answer: the Amish take over the world."

Slightly against underpopulation worries

#futurology #demographics

waynerad@diasp.org

Scott Alexander Siskind, aka "Astral Codex Ten guy", weighs in on underpopulation concerns.

"1: Declining birth rates won't drive humans extinct, come on." "Not only are we not going to go extinct because of underpopulation, population is going to continue to rise for the next 80 years."

"2: Immigrant-friendly countries will keep growing." US will go from 330 million to 430 million in 2100. UK will go from 60 million to 80 million.

"3: Countries with low immigration will shrink, but mostly slowly." Brazil 210 million to 190 million in 2100. Germany 80 million to 70 million. Japan 125 million to 70 million. India 1.3 billion to a peak of 1.8 billion in 2060, then down to 1.6 billion in 2100. China 1.4 billion to 800 million in 2100.

"4: Big relative drops still imply high absolute populations." "But Japan and China will drop a lot. By 2100, there will only be 800 million Chinese and 70 million Japanese."

"5: Concerns about 'underpopulation' make more sense as being about demographic shift." "In high-immigration countries, declining birth rates will cause changing ethnic demographics, as native populations shrink and immigrant populations increase."

"6. Age pyramid concerns are real, but not compatible with technological unemployment concerns." "It's weird to be worried both that the future will be racked by labor shortages, and that we'll suffer from technological unemployment and need to worry about universal basic income."

"7: Dysgenics is real but pretty slow." "Another potential demographic shift in both types of country is shift among social classes / levels of educational attainment."

"8. Innovation concerns are real but probably overwhelmed by other factors." "Consider the century 1820-1920. It gave us the steamship, the railroad, the automobile, the factory, mass production, electricity, refrigeration, radio, the airplane, etc, etc, etc, with a population only about 10-20% as high as today."

"9. In the short-to-medium run, we're all dead." Alrighty then. Wait, one more...

"Appendix: The Amish inversion." "Suppose that there is a 2100 -- and even a 2200, 2300, etc. what happens if we extend current trends? Answer: the Amish take over the world."

Slightly against underpopulation worries

#futurology #demographics