Europe is heading for perilous waters, and its leaders are dozing at the tiller

The Guardian

Ukraine needs more help, the far right is on the rise and the Middle East crisis gets worse. Where is the European Union’s vision? (...)

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European Union flags fly outside the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels. Photograph: Yves Herman/Reuters.

The way it’s going, 2024 could turn into a nightmare for the 27-country bloc – an all-time annus horribilis. A daunting slew of international and internal challenges is coming to a head. Is the EU ready to meet them? Definitely not.

Take the crisis in the Red Sea. Iran-backed Houthi militants have been attacking shipping there since the Israel-Hamas war began. (...)

The EU has an important stake in this fight. About 40% of its Asia and Middle East trade moves via Suez. But only the Netherlands provided hands-on assistance. (...)

Snoozing at the tiller, Europe is again failing to pair its self-interest and aspirations as a global actor with timely, concrete, joined-up action.

The Gaza war has exploded another illusion ahead of this week’s pivotal EU summit. (...) As Israel’s largest trading partner, they think the EU has leverage. All support a two-state solution. But when Josep Borrell, EU foreign policy chief, outlined a 10-point peace plan for Palestine last week, his VIP guest, Israel Katz, Israel’s foreign minister, ignored it. (...)

Europe’s bottomless capacity for punching below its weight is damaging Ukraine, where two years on from its invasion, Russia appears to be slowly gaining the upper hand. (...)

The failure of some EU countries, notably France, to supply more and better arms, as US deliveries dry up, is also harming Ukraine’s chances – and consequentially, Europe’s hopes of defending its borders from future Russian aggression. That’s especially pertinent given Trump’s prospective return to the White House a year from now. (...)

Trump’s resurrection “would endanger European interests but Europe is not investing in mitigating the risks.” (...)

[T]he geopolitical dangers facing the EU in 2024 are global – and exacerbated by the dithering of its wealthiest member. Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, “is giving no political or strategic leadership to a Europe that is ill-prepared for a possible rupture of the transatlantic relationship.” (...)

“Similarly, neither Germany nor Europe is prepared to withstand the growing influence of regimes that challenge the traditional prominence of the west” – a reference to China, a big trade partner and bigger potential threat. (...)

Germany is also a flashpoint in the main internal political challenge confronting the EU – the rise of the far right. (...)

New polling by the European Council on Foreign Relations suggests populist “anti-European” parties, principally of the right, will make large gains in EU and national elections this year. Migration, broken budgets, energy and climate are other explosive common denominator issues. (...)

Can the EU survive a dangerous, defining year? It will probably muddle through. But the sort of strategic leadership and vision offered by Jacques Delors, the legendary Eurocrat who died last month, is evidently lacking – and urgently required. (...)

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Tags: #europa #european_union #gaza #israel #palestine #palestinians #houthi #red_sea #germany #france #china #ukraine #russia #putin #far_right #migration #climate #climate_crisis #climate_change #trump #nato #borrell

By bombing Yemen, the west risks repeating its own mistakes

The Guardian

Instead of retaliating against the Houthi militia, the US and its allies should be pressing Israel to end its invasion of Gaza and accept a ceasefire.

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A Typhoon takes off from RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus to to take part in airstrikes against military targets in Yemen. Photograph: Sgt Lee Goddard/MoD/AFP/Getty Images.

Early on Friday, the US and Britain launched military strikes against more than a dozen targets in Yemen controlled by the Houthi militia. (...)

Western leaders, and especially the US president, Joe Biden, insist that they want to reduce the risk of the war in Gaza spreading to other parts of the Middle East. But the US-led air and naval strikes on Yemen are the most significant expansion of the conflict since Israel launched its devastating assault on Gaza after the 7 October attacks by Hamas. Instead of avoiding a wider war, the US and its allies are escalating regional tensions and adding fuel to a conflict that has already spilled over to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and the Red Sea. The conflagration could spiral out of control, perhaps more by accident than design. (...)

Washington appears almost eager to repeat its mistakes: years of bombing by US allies during Yemen’s long civil war failed to dislodge the Houthis or persuade them to change course. In fact, the Houthis became stronger after each military confrontation.(...)

The US and its allies are resisting the clearest path for de-escalation across the region: putting pressure on Israel to end its invasion and accept a ceasefire.

A truce would remove the Houthis’ rationale for their aggression against commercial shipping in the Red Sea – and the movement’s leaders have said they will cease disrupting global trade once Israel stops bombing Gaza. The US-led military strikes are likely to have the opposite effect. (...)

The Houthis, who were losing support in Yemen before the Gaza war, have little incentive to change tactics since the conflict has increased their popularity throughout the Middle East. (...)

Washington’s unwavering support and billions of dollars in arms shipments to Israel are straining other US alliances in the region. It’s notable that two of the US’s closest allies in the Arab world, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have resisted joining an international naval coalition, assembled by the Biden administration last month, to confront the Houthis and protect shipping in the Red Sea. (...)

The Houthis essentially won the war, and they reached a UN-brokered ceasefire in 2022 with Saudi Arabia, although the two sides are still negotiating a permanent truce. (...)

For the US and Britain, that history should serve as a cautionary tale: the regional power they supported spent years trying to destroy the Houthis, only to be ground down and forced to negotiate a settlement.

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Tags: #middle_east #israel #palestine #palestinians #gaza #lebanon #iraq #yemen #houthis #saudi_arabia #iran #hezbollah #hamas #red_sea