#recession

aljazeera@squeet.me
brainwavelost@nerdpol.ch

“With Germany now in #recession, the UK most likely to follow, and then Italy and France not far behind, there will be a very significant depletion of public support for war and the tide will rise against Ukrainians refugees. That means Russia has to keep the war going for a couple of years because sanctions won’t ease, but it does not have to make human sacrifices to win. There is no need to rush it.”

What is the situation in Germany? Is what was written above true, or does it make sense?

mlansbury@despora.de
brainwavelost@nerdpol.ch

In the face of stubborn inflation, officials are expected to raise the central bank’s benchmark interest rate — the federal funds rate — to a new range of 3.0% to 3.25% from a current range of 2.25 to 2.50%. This would mark the third-straight 75-basis-point rate hike since June, bringing rates to their highest level since 2008.

“We do see a #risk of #recession, especially if the #Fed continues to get aggressive,” Luke Tilley, chief economist for Wilmington Trust, wrote in a note to clients. “They could overdo it and overcorrect. And that poses a risk to the outlook and could send us into recession.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-reserve-eyes-historic-rate-hike-wednesday-192026594.html

olladij@diaspora.permutationsofchaos.com

2022 has been a year of #dollar power—power that manifests itself in both overt and subtler forms.
In the spring, the financial sanctions slapped on Russia’s Central Bank following Russian President Vladimir #Putin’s invasion of #Ukraine demonstrated the extent of U.S. financial sway, especially when it is exerted in cooperation with America’s European partners. If you export far more than you import and thus hold really large foreign exchange reserves—like #Russia’s $500 billion—there really is nowhere else to hold them other than dollars or euros. If it comes to a confrontation, that puts you at the mercy of the financial authorities of the United States and its alliance partners. #NATO reveals itself to be a financial power.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/12/fed-interest-rates-dollar-system-currency/ #economy #china #india #currency #usa #srilanka #argentina #recession

olladij@diaspora.permutationsofchaos.com

The grim prospects of the US #economy are a hot topic for everyone, from relevant #media to opinion leaders like #ElonMusk and Donald #Trump. The chances of a full-blown recession are estimated at 50%, with individual analysts harbingering an impending economic hurricane.
The US government has indeed found itself between a rock and a hard place: on the one hand, they have to rein in the spiraling price #growth; on the other hand, they need to avoid slowing down the economy. As of May, the #inflation rate beat the 1981 record, reaching 8.6%. Spiking prices have caused an equally drastic reaction on the part of the regulator, with the Federal Reserve System upping the key interest rate by a record 75 bps (unprecedented since 1994) to 1.5-1.75% a year.
However, the market doesn't seem too impressed with the financial authorities’ efforts, with indexes setting new anti-records and fueling debates on whether rock bottom has been reached yet. Two main US indexes, S&P500 and #DowJones, have dropped by almost 20% since the New Year, with the high-tech NASDAQ plunging by an entire 30%.

https://theins.ru/en/economics/253554 #usa #covid-19 #war #ukraine #biden #crisis #fed #russia #eu #china #greece #italy #portugal #spain #recession

anonymiss@despora.de

#Coinbase lays off 18% of #workforce as executives prepare for #recession and ‘crypto winter’

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/coinbase-lays-off-18percent-as-execs-prepare-for-recession-crypto-winter.html

CEO #BrianArmstrong pointed to a possible recession, and a need to manage Coinbase’s burn rate and increase efficiency. He also said the #company grew “too quickly” during a bull #market.

#crypto #cryptocurrency #btc #bitcoin #economy #news #work #staff #finance

dredmorbius@diaspora.glasswings.com

Recession Watch: Y-Combinator's Message to Founders

Buckle up.

https://nitter.kavin.rocks/refsrc/status/1527238287471292417

OCR'd text:

4:11

Greetings YC Founders,

During this week we've done office hours with a large number of YC companies. They reached out to ask whether they should change their plans around spending, runway, hiring, and funding rounds based on the current state of public markets. What we've told them is that economic downturns often become huge opportunities for the founders who quickly change their mindset, plan ahead, and make sure their company survives.

Here are some thoughts to consider when making your plans:

  1. No one cannot predict how bad the economy will get, but things don't look good.

  2. The safe move is to plan for the worst. If the current situation is as bad as the last two economic downturns, the best way to prepare is to cut costs and extend your runway within the next 30 days. Your goal should be to get to Default Alive.[1]

  3. If you don't have the runway to reach default alive and your existing investors or new investors are willing to give you more money right now (even on the same terms as your last round) you should strongly consider taking it.

  4. Regardless of your ability to fundraise, it's your responsibility to ensure your company will survive if you cannot raise money for the next 24 months.

  5. Understand that the poor public market performance of tech companies significantly impacts VC investing. VCs will have a much harder time raising money and their LPs will expect more investment discipline.
    As a result, during economic downturns even the top tier VC funds with a lot of money slow down their deployment of capital (lesser funds often stop investing or die). This causes less competition between funds for deals which results in lower valuations, lower round sizes, and many fewer deals completed. In these situations, investors also reserve more capital to backstop their best performing companies, which further reduces the number of new financings.

This slow down will have a disproportionate impact on international companies, asset heavy companies, low margin companies, hardtech, and other companies with high burn long time to revenue.

Note that the numbers of meetings investors take don't decrease in proportion to the reduction in total investment. It's easy to be fooled into thinking a fund is actively investing when it is not.

  1. For those of you who have started your company within the last 5 years, question what you believe to be the normal fundraising environment. Your fundraising experience was most likely not normal and future fundraises will be much more difficult.

  2. If you are post Series A and pre-product market fit,[2] don't expect another round to happen at all until you have obviously hit product market fit. The Series A Milestones[3] we publish here might even turn out to be a bit too low.

  3. If your plan is to raise money in the next 6-12 months, you might be raising at the peak of the downturn. Remember that your chances of success are extremely low even if your company is doing well. We recommend you change your plan.

  4. Remember, that many of your competitors will not plan well, maintain high burn, and only figure out they are screwed when they try to raise their next round. You can often pick up significant market share in an economic downturn by just staying alive.

  5. For more thoughts watch this video we've created: Save Your Startup during an Economic Downturn.[4]

Best,

YC

HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31435407


Notes:

Presumed links (I do not have a copy of the original message). See also https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31436244

  1. Default Alive: http://www.paulgraham.com/aord.html

  2. Pre-product market fit: See: https://www.ycombinator.com/blog/ycs-essential-startup-advice/ "do things that don’t scale: remain small/nimble"

  3. Series A Milestones: Presumably private resource.

  4. Save Your Startup during an Economic Downturn: https://yewtu.be/watch?v=0OVSTWozvfY?vq=hd720

#Ycombinator #Startups #Recession #Investing #Economy

gammanu@framasphere.org

En lien avec l'illustration des Tsunami : COVID-19, recession, changement climatique, effondrement de la biodiversité je vous partage une découverte récente :

End:Civ

Couverture End:Civ

PS : Au passage, cette vidéo, comme d'autres sont hébergé sur ma nouvelle chaine #peertube 1000iTemps dont voici la raison d'être :

Il est temps de remettre en cause le status quo, le regard que l'on porte sur la marche du monde, notre façon de faire société.

Vous trouverez ici les vidéo que je recommande pour questionner ses certitudes.

Et voici, avec quelques Htag bonus description d'origine de End:Civ :

End:Civ est un #film #documentaire réalisé par Franklin Lopez, qui examine le caractère #destructeur et #autodestructeur de la #civilisation #industrielle, sur le plan #écologique, ainsi que son caractère hautement #coercitif, sur le plan #social. Basé en partie sur Endgame, un best-seller écrit par Derrick Jensen, End:Civ demande : « Si ton pays se faisait envahir par des extraterrestres qui coupaient les forêts, qui empoisonnaient l’eau et l’air et contaminaient les réserves de nourriture, résisterais-tu ? »

Toutes les civilisations ont dévasté l’environnement dont elles dépendaient, et se sont ainsi autodétruites. Tandis que nous écrivons ces mots, la civilisation industrielle mondialisée reproduit ce même processus en détruisant de manière systématique le monde naturel. Cela devrait être une évidence. De la (mal nommée) sixième extinction de masse des espèces (nous devrions parler d’une première destruction de masse, parler d’extinction suggère une absence de responsabilité, une sorte de fatalité naturelle) au réchauffement climatique, en passant par les nombreuses pollutions de tous les milieux (par le plastique, des métaux lourds, et d’innombrables autres formes de contamination), le constat est flagrant.

Cependant, des actes de courage, de compassion et d’altruisme abondent, même dans les endroits les plus affectés. En documentant d’une part, la résistance de ceux et celles qui sont le plus touchés par la guerre et la répression, et d’autre part, l’héroïsme de ceux et celles qui vont de l’avant pour confronter la crise la tête haute, End:Civ présente une piste pour sortir de cette folie dévorante et aller vers un avenir plus sain.

End:Civ présente des entrevues avec Paul Watson, Waziyatawin, Gord Hill, Michael Becker, Peter Gelderloos, Lierre Keith, James Howard Kunstler, Stephanie McMillan, Qwatsinas, Rod Coronado, et John Zerzan, entre autres.

Il s’agit ici de la version originale sous-titrée en français.

Mot clef de l'illustration Tsunami :
#covid19 #corona #recession #climatechange #globalwarming #biodiversity #collapse