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#probability

claralistensprechen3rd@friendica.myportal.social
Radio Free Trumpistan

Just don't make the mistake of calling it "predestination".

♲ earthling - 2024-05-09 01:30:01 GMT

Everything Is Predictable: How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World by Tom Chivers, 2024A captivating and user-friendly tour of Bayes's theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of The Rationalist's Guide to the Galaxy.

@bookstodon
#books
#nonfiction
#probability
#BayesianStatistics
#BayesTheorem
At its simplest, Bayes's theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes's theorem is a description of almost everything.</p><p>But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?

earthling (@appassionato@mastodon.social)

8.15K Posts, 41 Following, 650 Followers · ‘Three passions, simple but overwhelmingly strong, have governed my life: the longing for love, the search for knowledge, and unbearable pity for the suffering of mankind,’ - Bertrand Russell

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wist@diasp.org
WIST

A quotation from Russell, Bertrand

When one admits that nothing is certain one must, I think, also admit that some things are much more nearly certain than others. It is much more nearly certain that we are assembled here tonight than it is that this or that political party is in the right. Certainly there are degrees of certainty, and one should be very careful to emphasize that fact, because otherwise one is landed in an utter skepticism, and complete skepticism would, of course, be totally barren and completely useless.

Bertrand Russell (1872-1970) English mathematician and philosopher
“Am I an Atheist or an Agnostic?” sec. “Skepticism” (1949)

#quote #quotes #quotation #certainty #skepticism #judgment #likelihood #moderation #probability
Sourcing / notes: https://wist.info/russell-bertrand/67789/

"Am I an Atheist or an Agnostic?" sec. "Skepticism" (1949) - Russell, Bertrand | WIST Quotations

When one admits that nothing is certain one must, I think, also admit that some things are much more nearly certain than others. It is much more nearly certain that we are assembled here tonight than it is that this or that political party is in...

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tpq1980@iviv.hu
T Q

In order to be "diverse" and "inclusive" we must first understand human diversity in all its facets, including but not limited to phenotypic characteristics. This effort necessitates comparisons and contrasts.

#gracekelly #popepiusXII #phenotypes #dei #diversity #inclusion #ethnicity #genotypes #indoeuropean #afroasiatic #europe #usa #neareast #middleeast #african #asian #uk #jew #jewish #jews #abrahamism #religion #abrahamicideologicalcolonialism #control #proportion #probability #representation #evolution #adaptation #humandiversity

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tpq1980@iviv.hu
T Q

…for context, in the same timeframe, Americans died of the following non-gun-related causes:

318,792 of heart disease
277,389 of cancer
103,095 of unintentional injuries
74,657 of stroke
65,240 of lower respiratory disease
54,724 of Alzheimer's
47,343 of diabetes

14,700 deaths from mass shootings in 138 days is 106 deaths per day on average in a nation of 335,000,000 people.

This means that each day, each American has an average 1 in 3,144,898 chance of being a victim of a mass shooting; a probability of 0.0000318%.

#massshooting #guncrime #gundeaths #death #assaultweapons #assaultweaponban #automaticweapons #secondamendment #usconstitution #statistics #wion #probability #risk #governmentpower #history #tyranny #usa #uk #india

https://youtu.be/0fekwfjWcd8

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tpq1980@iviv.hu
T Q

Snapshot of data from Cambridge University tracking the death rate attributed to Covid-19 in England from July 2020 to July 2021, with added percentage recovery rates & probabilities of death based on this & the population of each age group.

#covid #covid19 #coronavirus #UK #ukdata #ukdatareveals #statistics #biostatistics #mrcbiostatisticsunit #cambridge #covidstatistics #mrna #mrnavaccines #information #graphs #charts #data #analysis #deathrate #deathbyagegroup #probability #recoveryrate #plandemic #ade #antibodydependentenhancement

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One person like that
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dredmorbius@joindiaspora.com
Doc Morbius (moved to Glasswings)

So how many COVID-19 virons have there been?

In discussing various dubious fringe theories concerning COVID-19, PZ Meyers notes that a "low" 3% probability of a genetic occurrance ... becomes a near certainty when you have a viral population numbering in the trillions.

https://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/2021/06/24/nicholas-wade-is-the-andrew-wakefield-of-molecular-virology/

But is even that estimate sufficiently high? What is the global population of SARS-COVID-2 viral particles (virons)? And more impportantly, how many generations of virons have existed? My estimtaes here are still likely low but give some idea of scale.

An NIH preprint suggests 1-100 billion particles exist per human host.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7685332/

The human body, comparatively, consists of roughly one trillion cells. If everyone on Earth could get a piece of you, they'd each net about 100 cells.

Worldometers currently lists 180 million confirmed cases (certainly a major undercount, though for order-of-magnitude estimates, close enough).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It's easier to discuss these quantities in magnitudes rather than amounts, especially as multiplication and division become addition and subtraction. In magnitudes, we're talking of 10 to the power of the magnitued, so 3 is 10^3^, or a thousand, 6 is 10^6^, or a million, 9 is 10^9^, or a billion, etc.

In magnitudes, we're talking 9--11 virons per person and 8 persons, so 17--19 total viron particles globally.

That's 10^17^ -- 10^19^ particles. And likely far more with not only under-counted cases, but multiple generations of virus replication. Each individual viron is a genetic game, test, and outcome.

A trillion is 10^12^, subtracting magnitudes, we have 10^5^ -- 10^7^ trillions of particles, 100,000 to 10 million trillions.

At these scales, single-digit percentages are well within the error range of our estimate. Again, there are tens of thousands to tens of millions of occurrences of a 3% probability.

"Unlikely" is "overwhelmingly probable."

To be fair, PZ Meyers was referring to the likelihood of occurence of genetic variants in a lab setting. Roughly ten humans equivalent viral load would meet that trillion mark. And the same conclusion holds: 3% of a trillion remains an overwhelmingly large number (tens of billions), making the "unlikely occurrence", even if it were one, a certainty. The only question becomes whether it is a beneficial adaptation (from the viruses point of view) to the envrironment.

Which is us.

#covid19 #probability #LargeNumbers #numeracy #PZMeyers

Nicholas Wade is the Andrew Wakefield of molecular virology

For the past month or so, my inbox has been inundated with letters insisting that they have proof of the lab leak hypothesis for the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Their insistent missives are full of jargo…

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